So, why has the PM suddenly decided to roll the dice and call a summer election?
The first thing to point out is that No10 was not united on the decision.
One camp, led by the Tory Party’s chief strategist Isaac Levido, had urged the PM to “go long” and wait until October or November to hold an election.
This would give them more time to show the economy is improving and let the Bank of England cut interest rates, they argued.
This in turn would let banks cut mortgage rates, which are currently crippling family budgets.
Only then would people start to feel financially better off.
But another team, led by the PM’s Political Secretary James Forsyth, have been pushing for a summer election.
Now, it is important to note that James is Rishi’s best mate.
They have known each other since school, are godparents to each other’s kids, and Rishi was best man at James’ wedding.
They are more than just political colleagues. They are besties.
Anyway, James’ camp reckons Rishi can now finally show he is achieving all five of the priorities he set out when he became PM.
These are – halve inflation, get the economy growing, get debt falling, cut NHS waiting lists and pass new laws to stop the boats.
On the economy, the PM will point out that growth is up, wages are rising and inflation is down to 2.3 per cent – almost bang on target.
NHS waiting lists also dropped for the fourth month in a row, according to official figures out last month.
And on stopping the boats, the PM has managed to pass laws enacting his flagship Rwanda deportation plan.
The thinking is – strike while the iron is hot and you can put five big ticks by your promises.
But there is also grim news for No10 that has nudged them into calling a summer election.
Their flagship Rwanda Bill has passed parliament and is now law. But hopes they will get a flight off the ground this year are fading fast.
Northern Ireland’s HIgh Court ruled that the plan breached human rights laws and therefore should not apply in NI.
This paved the way for English laws to also reject it.
Meanwhile, small boat crossings are going up again.
A whole summer of damaging headlines showing boats on the shores of Dover will only feed a sense that No10 does not have a grip.
Rishi is famously straight laced.
He doesn’t drink, he has never taken drugs, and he is not a gambler.
But he has staked it all on a July 4 election.
Will he come up trumps? Or will he lose it all?
