BORIS JOHNSON could be seen splashing around the hotel pool in Kigali early yesterday morning. Was he waving or drowning? Thursday night’s by-election meltdown stunned ministers and ripped open unhealed Tory wounds over BoJo’s leadership and his future as PM. Tory chairman Oliver Dowden dramatically quit in a dawn protest and ex-minister Lord Howard openly […]
BORIS JOHNSON could be seen splashing around the hotel pool in Kigali early yesterday morning.
Was he waving or drowning? Thursday night’s by-election meltdown stunned ministers and ripped open unhealed Tory wounds over BoJo’s leadership and his future as PM.
Tory chairman Oliver Dowden dramatically quit in a dawn protest and ex-minister Lord Howard openly called on the Cabinet to dump BoJo.
In a moment of madness last week I doubled my £5 wager on Boris surviving until Christmas.
And despite his defeat in true-blue Devon and Red Wall Wakefield, I think my tenner is safe. For the moment.
Angry Tories know another abortive leadership coup would destroy the party as a political force, perhaps for ever.
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But will BoJo survive until the next election? I wouldn’t bet on that.
The PM was badly mauled by defeat in newly won Wakefield.
But the potentially mortal blow was delivered with his record loss of Tiverton and Honiton, the first in a century. Few Tory MPs now feel safe.
Grumpy North Devon voters stayed home, handing victory on a plate to the Lib Dems.
This was a calculated Partygate slap for Boris, their former hero.
Red Wall supporters grudgingly backed Labour.
Their revolt prompted calls among Tory right-wingers to abandon the North and forget about the Government’s costly and controversial “levelling up” agenda.
Tory chief Dowden, who loathed his “media spokesman” role as party chairman, stormed out, calling for “somebody” to take responsibility.
He meant Boris.
“Our supporters are distressed and disappointed by recent events and I share their feelings,” he declared in his resignation letter.
“They deserve better than this.”
Ex-Tory leader Michael Howard, who once sacked Boris for telling fibs, demanded Cabinet resignations and a fresh revolt by Tory MPs.
“The party, and more importantly the country, would be better off under a new leader,” he stormed.
“The people of North Devon have delivered their verdict.”
And in a blunt call for top ministers to wield the knife, he added: “Members of the Cabinet should very carefully consider their position.
“The country needs new leadership and the time has come to provide it.”
It was a powerful signal from a respected party grandee that time is up for the fabled Greased Piglet.
But at the time of writing — always a risk — this is not on the cards.
A fresh bout of blood-letting would be suicidal.
Voters detest divided parties. What’s more, nobody has emerged as an obvious replacement.
There are plenty of contenders, both Remainers and Brexiteers.
Cabinet ministers Liz Truss and Priti Patel would run, along with backbencher favourite Tom Tugendhat.
Chancellor Rishi Sunak, formerly outright favourite, will think twice.
The front runners are Defence supremo Ben Wallace, who doesn’t really want the job, and Education tough guy Nadhim Zahawi, who does.
But none is an obvious election winner and few are in a rush to inherit a bed of nails, a runaway wage/price spiral and threats of a general strike derailing the fragile economy.
There is one glimmer of hope amid this by-election gloom . . . Labour actually flopped.
Yes, they recaptured Wakefield. But there was little enthusiasm among voters.
While Lib Dems could break out the champagne, Sir Keir Starmer should hang his head in shame.
His Wakefield result does not begin to compare with victories by lacklustre Ed Miliband, still less Tony Blair, who routinely drove the Tories into third place.
Reflected nationwide in a general election — highly unlikely — the Wakefield vote would not even give Labour a working majority in government.
And half the electorate did not bother to vote.
By-elections are an opportunity to let off steam.
General elections are the moment people choose a government.
Polling guru Prof John Curtice summed up Labour’s failure to score.
“The key message is that Conservative unpopularity is not yet matched by enthusiasm for Labour,” he said.
“The increase in Labour support in Wakefield was relatively modest.
“Ed Miliband saw his party’s vote rise by more than that in ten by-elections between 2010 and 2015.”
Starmer has little hope of winning outright
But he could be PM in a Lib-Lab pact, bolstered by an unholy alliance of Greens and Nicola Sturgeon’s scandal-hit Tartan Terrors.
This is no consolation for rattled Tory MPs, many privately writing off any chance of victory in 2024.
With food, fuel and mortgage costs spiralling out of control, few believe they can win under Boris Johnson or perhaps anyone else.
Some argue they would benefit from a spell in opposition, while Labour takes the hit for the economic crisis.
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This is madness. Boris needs to return all guns blazing from the Rwanda summit and start dishing out the undelivered Brexit prizes he promised so long ago.
It is his last chance of surviving as PM.
CABINET COUP:
A flurry of cabinet resignations could see the PM realise he no longer has the power to stay in post.
MEN IN GREY SUITS:
Chiefs at the top of the Tory Party follow the lead of Lord Howard and tell him his time is up as he’s lost the backing of rank-and-file members.
ANOTHER CONFIDENCE VOTE:
Tory rebels change 1922 executive rules which keep the PM safe for another year. Could be slashed to six months or even three.
PARLY BAN:
PM faces crunch Privileges Committee probe starting within weeks. If they find out he’s lied to Parliament, they may ban him from the estate – a move which would be tricky to ride out.
