THE PREMIER LEAGUE is in real danger of “losing” its fifth slot in next season’s expanded Champions League.
And that’s why Tottenham fans should be desperate for North London rivals Arsenal to beat Bayern Munich in tonight’s Champions League quarter-final second leg.
If the Gunners can knock out Bayern Munich, it will be a massive boost to England in its battle with Germany to have five clubs in the 2024/5 Champions League.
And if Manchester City can see off Real Madrid as well, the Premier League will move back ahead of the Bundesliga and the chances will increase of fifth place being enough for Spurs (or Aston Villa) to qualify for Europe’s blue riband competition.
Next season’s CL will have 36 teams, compared to the current 32. Two of the four additional places will be awarded to the countries whose teams perform best in this season’s European competitions.
Right now Italy are way out in front at the top of Uefa’s coefficent rankings on 18.428, with Germany second on 17.214 and England on 16.750.
This makes Arsenal’s clash with Bayern particularly important and presents a dilemma for Spurs fans who would otherwise naturally support former striker Harry Kane and his Munich mates.
If Mikel Arteta’s side triumph in Munich, they will add more Uefa points to England’s total AND prevent Bayern adding more to Germany’s, while leaving the Bundesliga with just two clubs (Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen) competing in Europe.
A City win over Real will add points to England’s total, too.
But if City win and Arsenal lose, Germany will have 17.642 and England 17.125 – in other words, the Bundlesliga’s lead over the Premier League will increase.
In contrast, a Gunners victory and defeat for Pep Guardiola’s men would leave Germany on 17.214 and England on 17.125, closing the gap.
Best of all, City and Arsenal going through would put England on 17.5 and Germany on 17.214
Confused? You will be. Because all these figures rely on the English teams winning their second legs (earning two points plus one for reaching the semi-finals), rather than drawing and winning on penalties (one point for a draw and one for progressing).
The battle to have five clubs in the 2024/5 Champions League
It’s simpler to say: Spurs supporters might want to do the math, forget about local squabbles and look at the bigger picture.
In fact, Tottenham fans should be cheering on not only Arsenal this week but also West Ham, another club not normally on their list of favourites..
David Moyes’ side are two-down to Bundesliga champions Bayer Leverkusen going into tomorrow night’s Europa League quarter final second leg at the London Stadium.
But if the Hammers can pull out a shock win, that would also boost England and damage Germany in the battle to secure a fifth spot in the Champions League.
Unfortunately for the Premier League, West Ham and Liverpool both look likely to go out of the Europa League.
Aston Villa, though, seem to have a good chance of reaching the semi-finals of the Europa Conference League as they lead LOSC 2-1 from the home leg.
Unai Emery’s side are also in pole position to claim fourth place in the Premier League this season.
But the further they go in the Conference League, the better the chances of the PL having five teams in the Champions League next season.
ASTON VILLA, played 33, 63 points, 4th place
Bournemouth (H) April 21
Chelsea (H) April 27
Brighton (A) May 4
Liverpool (H) May 13
C Palace (A) May 19
TOTTENHAM, played 32, 60 points, 5th place
Arsenal (H) April 28
Chelsea (A) May 2
Liverpool (A) May 5
Burnley (H) May 11
Man City (H) May 14
Sheff Utd (A) May 19
