Instead of this race marking an aberration, it reflects the new trajectory of American politics.
Most Americans, including myself, do not want either President Joe Biden or Donald Trump to serve a second term. Many cannot understand how an 81-year-old who looks and acts his age will face a 77-year-old for whom truth and fact are negotiable to fit any circumstance. Surely other choices in a country of nearly 350 million must be available?
Is this match-up then an accident of politics and fate? Or, is it a predictable outcome of the current state of the American political arena and an accurate reflection of what can be expected from both parties?
In other words, rather than being a grotesque anomaly, is Biden v. Trump the new normal in American politics and government?
If this radical interpretation of American politics is indeed accurate, understanding how we got here is the essential first step in determining where the nation is headed. And the extraordinary conduct of members of both political parties provides ample evidence that like Denmark, some things are decidedly rotten in Washington and throughout the country.
In my view, the rot began in August 1964.
I have previously cited the decline in the legitimacy of the U.S. government as starting with the Tonkin Gulf Resolution that set America off to war in Vietnam. With only two dissenting votes in Congress, the U.S. began military action in retaliation for North Vietnamese attacks on two U.S. destroyers in international waters — except there were no attacks, a catastrophic error to be repeated nearly 40 years later over nonexistent Iraqi weapons of mass destruction.
Vietnam was not the only factor that convinced most Americans that the government was untrustworthy. The legitimacy of foundational American institutions, from the Boy Scouts to big business and from Congress to the Supreme Court, has been shattered in the view of many. In this process, the political, cultural, social, ideological and ethical differences between the two parties became irreparable.
Civility and compromise have disappeared. President George W. Bush’s challenge that “either you are with us or you are with the terrorists” has become the law of the land. In the past, religion and race often set the boundaries for marriage. Today, Democrats and Republicans are incompatible even in marriage.
Concurrently, as financial and stock markets soared — despite the occasional setbacks — greater disparities in wealth emerged. One percent of the richest Americans control or own the lion’s share of GDP. And money continues to contaminate politics. Today, the effects of inflation and deficit spending mandated by the COVID crisis have greatly increased most Americans’ daily living costs.
The mood in America has soured. And the divide between Democrats and Republicans means that in an election, the percentage of undecided Americans continued to decrease. In 2016 and 2020, because of the Electoral College, the presidency was decided in a handful of states and districts and by about 200,000 votes.
The emergence of Donald Trump, in retrospect, was no surprise. In every sense from business to personal conduct, Trump is oversized and bound by few rules.
While asserting his wealth is in the billions, Trump has attracted former Democrats and the working class, attacking the so-called rich elites. Because of his experience in television and the various "Celebrity Apprentice" shows, Trump is a natural showman. His campaign rallies are huge doses of Trump’s personality that, like the Pied Piper, are compelling and addictive.
Trump fills the need of many Americans who are resentful and angry over their stations in life. And while on trial in New York over so-called “hush money,” that has not damaged his popularity. How much the verdict will affect this remains to be seen.
Biden is the traditional Democratic pol whose record in government is the basis for his reelection. When Barack Obama chose Biden as his vice president, age was not an issue. Hillary Clinton won the nomination in 2016 and lost. That meant Biden was certainly a leading candidate in 2020 when he would be 77.
Why this election is representative of American politics becomes clear. Trump fills the need for dissent and disparity. And he has completely twisted the Republican Party into the Party of Trump.
Biden is the traditional Democratic politician in a party that has not yet undergone a similar transformation Trump imposed on the GOP. Hence, instead of this race marking an aberration, it reflects the new trajectory of American politics. It is unclear who will win.
But if Trump loses, will he run in 2028? After all, he will only be 81.
Harlan K. Ullman is a senior advisor at the Atlantic Council and the prime author of the “shock and awe” military doctrine. His 12th book, “The Fifth Horseman and the New MAD: How Massive Attacks of Disruption Became the Looming Existential Danger to a Divided Nation and the World at Large,” is available on Amazon. He can be reached on Twitter @harlankullman.
