Democrats are growing increasingly worried that President Biden’s brutal swing-state numbers could drag down their candidates in the Senate.
Biden has been trailing former President Trump in most of the swing states likely to determine the race for the White House, several of which will be important if Democrats are to retain their Senate majority.
“Let’s cut through the BS, on the three top issues — inflation, immigration and the war in Gaza — he’s in the toilet,” one Democratic strategist said of Biden. “The polls show he’s not doing well with some of the key voting blocs: young voters, Black voters, Hispanic voters.
“So let me ask you this: Would you want to stand side by side with him?” the strategist said.
The good news for Democrats is that their candidates in Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada, which are all expected to host tight Senate races, are doing better than Biden.
Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) holds a 2-point advantage over Republican Sam Brown in Nevada, while Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) and Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) hold 4- and 5-point leads, respectively, over Republicans Kari Lake and David McCormick in their states.
The bad news is that Biden is down double digits to Trump in Arizona and Nevada, according to recently released polling by The New York Times and Siena College, which means Democrats in those states will really need to outperform the Democratic president unless things change.
Worse, Democrats also certainly need to win Senate seats in Montana and Ohio to keep their Senate majority. Those are Republican states Trump is expected to win in the fall.
“In these battleground states, the Democrats who are going to succeed are going to be ones who demonstrate a clear level of independence from the national party, and that necessarily means a certain amount of independence from the White House,” said John LaBombard, a Democratic strategist who served as a top aide to Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) and former Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.). “That said, certainly, these numbers are nerve-wracking for those of us who think it's critically important to keep [former President Trump] out of the White House.”
Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) has become increasingly vocal on immigration and border issues in recent months, including last week when he laid into Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin over the situation there during a hearing.
Tester also announced his support for the Laken Riley Act, a bill requiring undocumented immigrants to be apprehended and held by federal officials if they are arrested for crimes such as burglary or larceny until they are deported from the U.S. Riley, a 22-year-old nursing student in Georgia, was killed by an undocumented immigrant who had been arrested and released by the New York Police Department after committing a similar crime.
Tester’s efforts highlight the need for Democrats to tout their own brands at a time when Biden could be a detriment to them, and some in the party say it’s no different than what some Republicans will need to do.
“There’s nothing new about down-ballot candidates of either party trying to create their own brand in their districts,” said former Rep. Steve Israel (D-N.Y.), who served as the chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “In fact, this year, Republicans in Biden’s districts are trying to create major distance between themselves and Donald Trump."
The Biden campaign said it is confident Biden’s record ultimately will help the party’s candidates.
“From lowering drug prices to defending our reproductive rights, President Biden's record won at the ballot box in 2022 and it will win again in 2024,” said Lauren Hitt, a campaign spokesperson. She argued that Republicans will be dragged down by Trump’s controversies.
Democrats are hoping Biden could benefit from “reverse coattails” in some states.
In 2020, Biden’s win in Georgia was helped by get-out-the-vote efforts for two Democratic Senate candidates, now-Sens. Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff. Sen. Mark Kelly’s (D-Ariz.) victory that year may also have served Biden.
Some Democrats, however, argue that the situation for Biden and Senate candidates in 2024 is a world away from 2020.
“The concern is not dragging anybody down. The theory of the case was that these candidates could bring Biden along, and it's just that we're in two different worlds right now,” said one Democratic operative with experience in Senate races.
This Democrat argued that many of the party’s Senate candidates are relatively popular in their home states. Biden, however, is not, and his brand and negatives are specific to him.
“People have a really strong thought on what they blame Biden for and what they expect from their senators or members of Congress, and it seems he's getting a unique brunt of the negativity from the electorate, while other candidates are not,” the Democrat said. “The Democratic coalition is strong, but the Biden coalition seems to be different and weaker.”
