Amid their multitude of self-inflicted wounds, the leaders of the Democratic Party still must answer one burning question: “Do we want to fight to retain the White House in 2024, or do we want to fold our hand and put everything into 2028?”
While various consultants and staff members will often spin it as an incredibly complex effort in order to justify their exorbitant fees or six-figure salaries, running — and hopefully winning — a presidential campaign still comes down to a few basics: message, money, name recognition, perception, toughness and basic math.
For instance, some Republicans have argued that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis had all but “message” and “perception.” To many, he was simply a more civil version of former President Donald Trump, minus the charisma and “It factor.” For those voters, DeSantis was unable to articulate a valid reason for them to switch from Trump to him.
When it comes to those few basics it takes to run and win a presidential campaign, every Democrat I speak with believes their party is in serious trouble come November if either President Joe Biden or Vice President Kamala Harris is heading the ticket. For them, perception is now the problem.
Their fear is that a majority of voters now view Biden as being too old and feeble; having increasing cognitive issues; having troubling family issues; having lost the respect of our adversaries; and having lost the border/immigration issue. That's an issue which in every GOP primary to date has trumped (pun intended) all others with voters.
As for Kamala Harris, I’m told there are two major perception issues. Issue one is that she is simply not up to the job, an opinion voiced by a number of left-leaning pundits over the last few years. Issue two is the perception that because she is the first woman and person of color to become vice president, she is all but “untouchable.”
The theory being that if the Democratic establishment attempted to force her off the ticket, female and minority voters would explode in anger and punish the Democrats at the ballot box. While some for sure believe that to be the case, others I speak with believe that theory to be insulting to female and minority voters, as it implies they would not be able to judge Harris (or potential replacements) based solely upon her (or their) strengths and weaknesses.
To be sure, as a seasoned and successful politician, Harris still brings real pluses to the table. One of them being her understanding of basic math. No doubt she is doing her own adding and subtracting as she views the political landscape before her and may decide — on her own — that the numbers simply don’t add up for her in 2024.
Should she come to that conclusion and make it known to Democratic leadership, then, almost assuredly, that leadership would attempt to instantly move on from Biden and Harris. The place to do so at this point would be the Democratic convention in August in Chicago.
Which brings us to the major perception issue for the tens of Republicans I have spoken with in the last number of weeks. As they have gleefully watched the Biden White House and campaign endure self-inflicted wounds, I asked them who they would truly most fear as the Democratic replacement for Biden come November? That question wiped the smile of glee right off most of their faces.
A majority still reluctantly answered: California Gov. Gavin Newsom. Their perception is that Newsom gives the Democrats the best chance to hold on to the White House.
None viewed former First Lady Michelle Obama as a viable candidate. Not because they didn’t believe she would be formidable if she entered the race, but simply because they always believed she would pass on the chance if offered — something her spokesperson confirmed this week.
While many in-the-know Republicans might view Newsom as “evil,” a “failure,” and a “snake-oil salesman,” millions of Americans voters see him as a candidate straight out of central casting in Hollywood: articulate, funny, self-deprecating and confident. More than that, millions of Democratic voters who truly hate Trump and dread the prospect of him being reelected view Newsom as someone who matches or exceeds Trump when it comes to charisma, the “It factor” and confidence.
Come August, should the Democrats decide to release Biden’s delegates and open up the convention to a free-for-all between Harris (if she stays in), Newsom, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker, Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker and others, it will still be Newsom who strikes the most fear into the Republicans I know.
Especially after Trump’s dominating showing on Super Tuesday, an increasing majority of Republicans believe the former president to be the growing odds-on favorite to win in November. However, should the Democrats move on from Biden and Harris at the convention, all bets are off.
Douglas MacKinnon, a political and communications consultant, was a writer in the White House for Presidents Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush, and former special assistant for policy and communications at the Pentagon during the last three years of the Bush administration.
