Last August, the White Sox traded infielder Jake Burger to the Miami Marlins for left-handed pitcher Jake Eder in arguably the most polarizing trade in recent franchise history. Fans both for and against the trade took strong stances on the deal immediately, and countless debates have been had on social media about it. Now that some time has passed since the deal was officially completed, we can take a step back and analyze how it looks for both sides up to this point.
Before the trade, Burger was among the best hitters on the 2023 White Sox. He hit 25 home runs in just 88 games, and his .806 OPS made him 14% better than league average offensively. Burger’s production on the field, likable personality, and comeback story made him a fan favorite for many White Sox fans. Once in Miami, he performed even better than in Chicago. While his power dipped slightly with the Marlins, his .860 OPS and 129 OPS+ were career highs. 2023 was the best season of his career, and he looked primed to be even better in 2024.
Unfortunately for Burger, he has not built on his strong 2023 campaign. He is hitting just .176 with a .511 OPS in 98 plate appearances this season. His barrel percentage, average exit velocity, and sweet-spot percentage are all career lows, while his ground ball percentage is a career-high. He is in the midst of the worst season of his MLB career so far. Burger injured his left oblique in April, which may be a factor in his struggles.
Eder’s trajectory has been the complete opposite of Burger’s. After the White Sox acquired him last August, he was terrible in AA. He had an 11.42 ERA in five starts with the Birmingham Barons. Eder also could not throw strikes to save his life, as evidenced by his absurdly high 7.8 BB/9. His poor performance and Burger’s great production in Miami caused many, including myself, to chalk up the trade as a loss immediately. However, it is worth noting that Eder has also dealt with several injury issues. He missed the entire 2022 season because of Tommy John Surgery and then fractured his foot after that. Those injuries could have impacted his performance last season.
Eder has redeemed himself somewhat this season. He has cut his BB/9 down to 3.7 compared to 7.8 last season while maintaining an elite 11.5 K/9. He has also allowed only one home run all season. While his 5.24 ERA in seven starts looks ugly, opponents batting average on balls in play (BABIP) against him this season is a ridiculous .424. His 2.60 FIP and 3.18 xFIP indicate that Eder has been unlucky this season and pitched significantly better than a 5.24 ERA would suggest. Eder will likely put up better stats if his luck turns around.
Eder is still in AA, so it is too early to declare who won or lost the trade. He must progress and make his way up to the majors to reach any logical conclusion. However, this season’s events have softened the blow somewhat from how the trade looked last year. It can no longer be considered a fleece job by the Marlins, and there is now a genuine possibility that the White Sox could win the trade long-term. It will be interesting to continue monitoring the trajectories of both players as their careers progress.
