Is your bullpen not the best? Just don’t use them.
Overall, the Royals bullpen has been the weakest part of the fast start. There has been a lot of hand-wringing about the deficiencies in the offense, but really it has been good enough so far. An average of 4.67 runs per game when the league average is 4.33 is not amazing, but it is 8th in baseball currently. Turns out, having two MVP-level bats in an offense is really helpful. The bullpen however ranks 25th by fWAR, 25th by FIP, and 29th by xFIP. Luckily, they rank 17th by ERA, and so have avoided some of the downside that seems plausible to this point. I think it might not be luck though.
This starting rotation has been really good. Everyone already knows this. But while they have been more than effective, they have also given volume. So far the five starters, plus two spot starts, have covered 279.1 innings. The rotation in 2023 had only thrown 238 through 49 games. Getting 40 extra innings out of your starters means the bullpen has not been taxed. If this pace keeps up, then the rotation will throw almost 135 more innings than it did last season. That’s two full reliever seasons less work for the bullpen.
I think that has in part allowed the reliever ERA to over-perform the FIP and xFIP that I pointed out above. The bullpen arms aren’t being asked to throw on back-to-back days often, or to throw five times a week. That means they have their best stuff most of the time when they are out there. Also, after the first three or four arms, the bullpen has been very weak. So, some of what looks bad is due to people like Matt Sauer, Chris Stratton, and Tyler Duffey bringing down the overall numbers, but not in important situations. Sauer, for instance, gave up gibr runs in the Oakland series over the weekend, but it was after those two games were already decided and no one cared. Now he is no longer on the Royals roster. This bullpen is going to get better through promotion and trade going forward.
Sam Long was the first promotion, but Omaha still has Walter Pennington and Will Klein who look like they could be positive contributors. And that is before we start talking about Jonathan Bowlan, Daniel Lynch IV, and Kris Bubic who are all starters ostensibly, but it might make sense to use them in bullpen rolls this season if you are chasing a playoff spot.
I’m still not sure this team has quite enough dominant bullpen arms, or any for that matter, in-house. James McArthur has done a reasonably competent job closing so far, but not good enough that he should clearly get to close games in a playoff setting. As the trade deadline approaches, the Royals should definitely kick the tires on relievers like Hunter Harvey, Jo Jo Romero, or guys who are really getting the job done on one-year contracts. They could use cheap outfield upgrades too, of course, but that is for another article.
For now, the Royals have McArthur, Zerpa, and Schreiber, who all seem trustworthy enough. That is a far cry from HDH and there are not nearly enough names. The starting pitching has really saved this team from another disappointing spring. Maybe Will Smith will continue his hot streak and reestablish himself as a fourth dependable option. Over his last nine outings, he has not allowed a run over seven and two-thirds with only one walk. Unfortunately, he has also only struck out two in that time - not a dominant profile even while going better after a rough start. The lack of strikeouts has been the glaring weakness for this bullpen.
Kansas City’s bullpen ranks 29th in baseball in strikeouts-per-nine innings at 7.16. Even their best strikeout arm, McArthur, is only at 10.02. There are three team bullpens with better rates than his rate. Having an elite strikeout pitcher or two in the back of the bullpen is a necessary weapon in baseball today, especially in the playoffs. Pennington might be one - he is striking out 13.35 per nine in Omaha - but he is really the only one unless one of the starters can up their rates out of the bullpen. This seems like a glaring weakness that could be addressed as we turn the corner into summer.
With winning comes expectation, and with expectation, the looming specter of disappointment can start to become a risk. This team has done everything we could have wanted and more so far, but fan(atic)s are hard to satiate. That starting rotation is awesome, kudos to JJ Piccolo and Brian Sweeney. As long as they stay reasonably healthy, I am comfortable assuming they will do enough to make a run at the AL Central. It does not have to be now, but over the next couple of months, they need to put a solid enough bullpen behind them to finish off games. Right now, it is a little too shaky, but options in the minors and maybe one trade could be enough to really set this team up for success.
