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The Phillies are just a few days away from wrapping up their Grapefruit League schedule and heading to Philadelphia to open the season on March 28 against the Atlanta Braves.
That means we’re very close to getting answers on some of the most important questions regarding the roster. Will Johan Rojas make the team? Who will grab the final three bullpen spots? Will there be any trades, waiver claims or signings that blow up this projection?
Here’s Phillies Nation’s second 2024 Opening Day roster projection.
Starting Lineup
The Phillies have yet to make a decision on Johan Rojas, but multiple reports indicate that the team is leaning towards him breaking camp with the team. This quote from Dave Dombrowski on WIP about Rojas is interesting and says a lot about how beneficial they believe a few months in Triple A could be for him:
“There’s such a difference between Triple A and the major leagues nowadays. It has been that way for a while, but it’s a broadening gap. So, you can do things at Triple A and be very successful, but it doesn’t necessarily translate that when you come to the big leagues, you’re going to be doing the same things. So that’s one of the difficulties that always comes. Because if you told me, and you’re using Rojas, ‘Hey, we’re going to send him out for two weeks and he’s going to go back and he’s going to learn X, Y and Z. And he’s gonna come back and then he’s gonna be this.’ … The problem is you might learn X, Y and Z at Triple A, but then when he comes to the big leagues, ‘Well, you gotta learn something different again.’
“That gap has become so wide and those guys — like Rojas — are so much more talented than the guys down there. Those are the type of questions that, believe me, we’ll be talking about today in our meetings and saying, ‘Okay, what’s the best thing to do?'”
Realmuto has predominantly batted third or fourth this spring, so we’ll assume Rob Thomson will hit him in the cleanup spot behind Bryce Harper on March 28. Realmuto has looked better at the plate in spring with his new swing mechanics.
Starting Rotation
1993 marked the last time the Phillies had five starters each make at least 25 starts in a season. That is attainable this year. Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola and Taijuan Walker have a track record of durability. Ranger Suárez looks healthy this spring and aims to get through a season without interruptions for the first time in his big league career. Sánchez will likely operate this year without an innings limit.
The Phillies rotation finished first in FanGraphs wins above replacement a season ago. Barring a significant injury, they are expected again to have one of the best rotations in the sport.
Bench: C Garrett Stubbs, INF Edmundo Sosa, OF Jake Cave and UT Whit Merrifield
The math is against Cristian Pache. He is in a battle with Jake Cave for the final bench spot. Both players are out of minor league options and Cave has an edge because he is a left-handed hitter and plays first base. Harper says his back is fine, but the Phillies have to monitor the situation and make sure they have some depth at the position.
This could go either way. Cave is playing on a $1 million contract, but only $500,000 is guaranteed, which could deter some teams from putting in a waiver claim for him if the Phillies decide to keep Pache over Cave. Kody Clemens, who has a 1.244 OPS this spring in 34 at-bats, could get another look at first base later in the season if the Harper back issues continue. Whit Merrifield could spent some time at the position, though he hasn’t made any starts at first this spring.
The Phillies can also make an acquisition to the bench that can make this prediction obsolete. They did that a day before Opening Day last season when they acquired Pache from the Oakland Athletics.
Bullpen: LHP José Alvarado, RHP Jeff Hoffman, RHP Seranthony Domínguez, LHP Matt Strahm, LHP Gregory Soto, RHP Luis Ortiz, RHP Spencer Turnbull and RHP Connor Brogdon
Orion Kerkering is running out of time to get ready for the season after missing weeks with the flu, so he will likely start the season either on the injured list or in Triple A.
That means three spots are up for grabs. The spring training game logs are a hint at where the team stands on certain players. It’s interesting that the Phillies haven’t stretched out Spencer Turnbull to be a traditional starter, so that’s an indication that the Phillies are preparing for him to be the long man out of the bullpen with the big club.
Luis Ortiz was a valuable innings eater out of the bullpen in 2023. Turnbull and Ortiz will likely be used in multi-inning stints early in the year.
As with the bench, the last spot could go to a player who is not currently in the organization. But for now, it probably comes down to Yunior Marte and Connor Brogdon. Marte has not allowed an earned run this spring. He will likely be up with the Phillies at some point this year, but Brogdon has probably had a good enough spring to retain his spot on the roster. Brogdon is out of minor league options.
