The Phillies will begin the season with the best Opening Day roster they’ve since the end of the rebuild.
There is not much intrigue as far as camp battles go. Only three roster spots are truly up for grabs. The Phillies want you to believe it’s more than that, but really, Johan Rojas will probably start the season in center field and Orion Kerkering will be in the bullpen.
The areas of intrigue are the last two spots in the bullpen and the last spot on the bench. Injuries can — and almost always will — change everything, but as things stand, the Phillies are in good shape. Knock on wood, as Rob Thomson would say.
Here’s Phillies Nation’s first Opening Day roster projection of 2024.
Starting 9
Hot take: J.T. Realmuto or Alec Bohm should hit eighth. Bohm’s offensive numbers were actually better than Realmuto’s in 2023, but both hitters could benefit from hitting in a lower spot in the lineup. If I were Thomson, I wouldn’t have the guts to tell either of these guys that they’re hitting eighth.
The analytics say that Kyle Schwarber should hit in the leadoff spot. Take my word for it.
Starting Rotation
There is no hysteria around who will be the No. 5 starter for the Phillies. It’s refreshing.
In the event that one of the Phillies’ top five starters misses time, the Phillies have options beyond trying to stretch out Matt Strahm. Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez, Taijuan Walker and Cristopher Sánchez started a combined 135 of the team’s 162 games in 2023, so others will be needed. To what extent? We’ll find out.
If any combination of Spencer Turnbull, Kolby Allard, Nick Nelson, Dylan Covey, David Buchanan or even Mick Abel can fill the gap, the Phillies may not need to trade for a starter at the deadline for a fourth-straight year.
Bullpen: LHP José Alvarado, LHP Matt Strahm, LHP Gregory Soto, RHP Orion Kerkering, RHP Seranthony Domínguez, RHP Jeff Hoffman, RHP Dylan Covey and RHP Spencer Turnbull
The first six spots are essentially locked in. The last two are where things get interesting.
Connor Brogdon and Dylan Covey are both out of options and have the edge above the rest of the pack to make the club. At least one of them will probably make it, but the prediction here is that Brogdon is the odd man out and he benefits from a change of scenery.
At least one reliever in the bullpen needs to be a “long man.” Covey can fill that role, but Turnbull can as well. Turnbull, who signed for two million guaranteed, has a minor league option remaining, but can reject a demotion to Triple A because he has over five years of MLB service time. If he rejects an optional assignment, however, he may have to forfeit his remaining salary.
Righties Yunior Marte, Max Castillo and Michael Mercado are all on the 40-man roster and are also in the mix for the last spot. Marte made the Opening Day roster last year and was optioned before the team even made it back to Philly for the home opener. Making the team out of spring, especially if you’re one of the last guys on the roster with minor league options left, doesn’t guarantee anything.
Bench: INF/OF Whit Merrifield, INF Edmundo Sosa, C Garrett Stubbs and OF Cristian Pache
The last spot on the bench is essentially a battle between Jake Cave and Cristian Pache, two players who are out of minor league options. Some have speculated that the job will go to Cave to give the Phillies a better righty/lefty balance, but that shouldn’t be the deciding factor.
It’s simple. Pache is six years younger, a much better defender and arguably a better hitter than Cave. Pache and Rojas are very similar players, but it shouldn’t be overlooked that Pache is in Rojas’ stratosphere when it comes to defensive ability in center field and is a more developed hitter than Rojas. If Rojas mashes lefties this year as well as Pache did last year, the Phillies would be thrilled.
Weston Wilson probably would have made the Opening Day roster if not for the Whit Merrifield signing. That’s fine because Wilson will likely be the first guy that gets called up if someone is injured. Expect to see a lot more of him in 2024.
