2023-24 Season in Review: Bryan Rust

Bryan Rust bounced back in a big way despite battling through injuries this season.

Vitals

Player: Bryan Rust
Born: May 11, 1992 (Age 31 season)
Height: 5’ 11”
Weight: 192 pounds
Hometown: Pontiac, Michigan
Shoots: Right
Draft: 2010 third round (80th overall) by the Pittsburgh Penguins
2023-24 Statistics: 62 games played, 28 goals, 28 assists = 56 points
Contract Status: Rust has four seasons remaining on a six year deal signed back in 2022 with an AAV of $5.125 per season. The deal comes with a no movement clause through 2024-25.
History: 2022-23 (65% C, 23% D); 2021-22 (80% A, 20% B); 2020-21 (61% A, 37% B); 2019-20 (91% A, 9% B); 2018-19 (60% B, 27% C); 2017-18 (40% A, 52% B).

Monthly Splits

via Yahoo!

Story of the Season

Injuries forced Rust out of the lineup for extended periods in 2023-24, but when healthy and on the, Rust was once again one of the Penguins most productive players. He finished second on the team in goals (28), behind only Sidney Crosby, and third on the teams in points (56), trailing Crosby and Evgeni Malkin.

When you look at Rust’s game chart from this season, it’s broken down into almost perfect thirds, with each chunk broken up by an injury that forced him to miss a total of 20 contests. He was about as equally productive across the entire season when he was healthy, with his best stretch of play coming in the final 20 games where he averaged a point per game.

His 56 points was just two points shy of a career best mark, but his 28 goals were enough to surpass his previous career high though he did fall agonizingly short of the 30-goal plateau. All in all, his 56 points in 60 games was good enough for a .90 point per game average.

If it wasn’t for bad luck with injuries, it’s safe to assume he could have posted career highs across the board though history does show Rust is more productive in seasons where he plays less games.

Regular season 5v5 advanced stats

Data via Natural Stat Trick. Ranking is out of 17 forwards on the team who qualified by playing a minimum of 150 minutes.

Corsi For%: 53.0% (5th)
Goals For%: 51.7% (10th)
xGF%: 55.5% (2nd)
Scoring Chance %: 53.2% (5th)
High Danger Scoring Chance%: 56.8% (2nd)
5v5 on-ice shooting%: 10.8% (1st)
On-ice save%: .887% (16th)
Goals/60: 1.27 (1st)
Assist/60: 1.07 (7th)
Points/60: 2.35 (4th)

Rust has always been a good analytics player throughout his career even if the production is not always there for him. This season it was a best of both worlds situation for Rust, posting good possession numbers and excellent production rates, all which finished at or near the top of the Penguins roster.

Rust didn’t get much goaltending help when he was on the ice, but his role isn’t to play a shutdown defensive game and his offensive production helps soften the blow.

Charts n’at

Via HockeyViz and JFresh Hockey

Here is a good visual representation of how Rust’s season was broken down into almost perfect thirds that were broken up by injury. He spent most of his ice time with Sidney Crosby, no surprise, and Jake Guentzel before the latter was moved at the deadline. With Guentzel gone, Drew O’Connor became the newest member of the first line and found success with Rust and Crosby.

At quick glance you can see that just four of Rust’s 28 goals this season came from above the dots as Rust thrives around the net. That fits in with his high danger rates being among the best on the team.

The hot zones for Rust match up pretty closely with the shooting chart above. He doesn’t score or shoot much from above the dots so any goals he gets from those areas will greatly influence his expected goal numbers. This was a big turnaround from last year, where Rust under-scored his expectation on this model by seven goals to show good finishing ability in 2023-24.

It’s easy to see why Rust gets so much time with Crosby, they clearly work well together and the same went for Guentzel. Hope to see this same effect with O’Connor next season if he gets a legit shot at playing on the top line.

While it hasn’t always been smooth sailing for Rust and he’s had his share of down seasons, it’s clear he bounced back in a big way in 2023-24. His finishing tends to be volatile which correlates with his offense. Defensively he’s below average but that’s not his main role on the team.

Another good visual showing Rust’s offensive strength and what he contributes on the ice. Despite posting one of his best scoring seasons, he was carried by his goal contributions much more than assists. Rust also carries the reputation of a penalty killer but that does not come through as one of his strong suits.

Highlights

Questions to ponder

There has been noticeable trend throughout Rust’s career where he has been more productive the less games he has played in a season. For instance, this season he totaled 56 points in 62 games played, while last season he totaled just 46 points in 81 games. His best season, 58 points in 2021-22, came in just 60 games.

That begs the question, can everything come together for Rust, both health and production, in the same season and what could that season look like? Going off just his numbers this season, his .90 point per game pace works out to around 74 points over a full season. Maybe 2024-25 can be the season it all comes together? We shall see.

Ideal 2024-25

Answering the question above with an emphatic ‘Yes!’ is the ideal scenario for Rust next season. He’s never put together a full 82-game campaign with the production he has shown in a shorter season or a season marred by long term injuries.

Without Jake Guentzel around, the burden will fall on Rust to pick up some of the offensive slack. He was fantastic after the trade deadline this season, racking up 20 points in 20 games and has a permanent spot alongside Sidney Crosby on the top line. There will also be at least one vacated spot on the top power play unit that Rust could fill.

The opportunities for a big season in 2024-25 will certainly be there.

Bottom line

Ever since he broke into the league with the Penguins and became a vital player in back-to-back Stanley Cup runs, Bryan Rust has developed a knack for coming through when the Penguins need him the most. Even when battered by injuries and forced to miss time, Rust posted once of the best seasons of his career and played a massive role in the late playoff push.

He still fell just shy of hitting the 30-goal mark for the first time, but still posted a new career high with 28 and came just three points short of a career high in scoring. His 10 goals after the trade deadline were tied with Sidney Crosby for the team lead and he trailed only Crosby in scoring in the same timespan.