Rail Strike looms this winter; Plus, a Polarizing Person in Washington – AGF Outlook ( News Washington )

Insights and Market Comments

PRESENTATION OFFERING Early birding has suddenly returned this winter as a major focus of the forest economy.

A key trade unionist narrowly rejected a contract yesterday coming close to passage in September after President Biden balked at the talks. This latest snag raises the threat of a walk early on Dec. 5 when the current cools off
supplies expire.

A blowout in the heart of the holiday season could cost the economy $2 billion a day, according to most estimates, as it cripples coal shipments, including most railcars, and jeopardizes agricultural trade. Another major transportation player, the trucking industry, has been hit hard in recent weeks by soaring diesel fuel prices.

It’s probably – AWAY FROM SOMETHING
– That Congress will intervene next month, but lawmakers don’t return from the Thanksgiving break until November 29, facing a full plate of economic issues.

YESTERDAY’S VOTE is close – one union was confirmed in September, another union narrowly rejected it – so a compromise is theoretically in the offing. But the unions are bitterly resisting plans for industrial and other non-salary workers
benefits It becomes a very generous part of the salary.

A PENDING PAYMENT will give embattled workers a 24% pay increase for more than five years, their biggest hike in 40 years. This includes an average of $16,000 in immediate pay. Unions will also maintain their platinum health package with only a 15% premium contribution, reports the Wall Street Journal.

THE FED’S DILEMMA? This winter blow could create a huge headache for the Federal Reserve; up to 700,000 workers in the full industry and federal sectors could be out of work. Would this lead to slower GDP growth, or an inflationary spike like the trucking industry wage hikes? Either way, this could produce an unpleasant start to the new year.
* * * *
The most polarizing PERSON in Washington? High on the list is über-regulator Gary Gensler, head of the Securities and Exchange Commission. A long article in this morning’s Politico concludes that Wall Street and Republicans are preparing to fight against his proposals, with some Democrats criticizing Gensler’s role in the financial services industry.

The SEC is pursuing new rules that would force companies to disclose their carbon “footprints,” and Gensler wants to fundamentally revamp the inner workings of the stock market, starting with much greater transparency. He has been warning about crypto currencies for a long time, and the collapse of FTX as a focus – ironically – on why he did not break aggressively against the industry.

GENSLER’S DETRIERS IN THE MICE STREET are preparing him to claim too much of his authority when House Republicans hold hearings on a plan next year to provide support for a section of the economy.

The POLITICAL article – here is a longer summary – is a definite read because it will be a regulatory system in the coming year. That Gensler reminds us of a favorite cliché: if you want a Munich friend, get a dog.

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