Anthony Smith faces immense pressure as a major underdog in vs. unbeaten Vitor Petrino at UFC 301, and the breakdown is grim for "Lionheart."
Vitor Petrino and Anthony Smith meet Saturday on the UFC 301 main card at Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro. Check out this quick breakdown of the matchup from MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom.
Last event: 3-3
UFC main cards, 2024: 31-32-2
Vitor Petrino def. Tyson Pedro, UFC Fight Night 238
Petrino has two bonuses in his first four UFC fights … 26-year-old Brazilian has eight of his 11 wins by stoppage, including seven knockouts … came to UFC through DWCS in 2022 with a win over Rodolfo Bellato, who now is in the UFC, himself … Smith lost a light heavyweight title shot to Jon Jones in 2019 … he’s been streaky since then at 5-5 … Smith is trying to bounce back from a current 1-3 stretch, including a knockout loss to Khalil Rountree this past December.
Anthony Smith
Filling out the main card is a light heavyweight showdown between Anthony Smith and Vitor Petrino.
After accruing four straight wins in the octagon after a successful stint on the Contender Series, Petrino will have his wish granted regarding his callout of Smith. Although this feels like an apropos time to say be careful what you wish for, Petrino appears to have some decent promise given his athletic ceiling and the division he competes in.
Petrino’s last outing left a lot to be desired, but I have a hard time picking Smith given his inconsistency as of late.
https://twitter.com/DanTomMMA/status/1244458244044513280
Smith is a well-rounded fighter who is much livelier than what the betting odds are indicating, I just suspect that Petrino’s power and leg kicks will dissuade the former title challenger from the game he needs to play.
As a fan of Smith, I hope that I’m wrong here. But as an analyst, the pick is Petrino to produce a stoppage by Round 3.
Nov 4, 2023; Sao Paulo, Brazil; Vitor Petrino (red gloves) prepares to fight Modestas Bukauskas (not pictured) during UFC Fight Night at Ibirapuera Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jason da Silva-USA TODAY Sports
Petrino is a huge 6-1 favorite, according to FanDuel. Petrino has been favored in all of his UFC fights, but never by this much. The only other times Smith was this big of an underdog was against Magomed Ankalaev and in his light heavyweight title shot against Jon Jones in 2019.
As the third fight on the main card, Petrino and Smith are expected to make their walk to the octagon around 11:15 p.m. ET. The fight airs on pay-per-view via ESPN+.
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 301.
For more detailed analysis from Dan Tom, check out his weekly show, “The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.”
