If there was a perfect way to describe how the 2024 season has started for the New York Mets, look no further than Saturday’s gut-wrenching loss. The team lead 7-2, then 9-5, en route to blowing the lead in the ninth inning and falling 10-9 in the 10th inning. At the center of it was once again closer Edwin Díaz.
In his first season back after missing all of last year due to a complete right patellar tendon tear suffered during the World Baseball Classic, the right-handed closer has struggled mightily. He blew two-straight saves in Philadelphia, before imploding in a non-save situation on Saturday in Miami. Díaz entered with a four-run lead before allowing a double, two singles, and then a game-tying three-run home run to Josh Bell. Díaz was relieved by Jake Diekman and the Mets ultimately lost the game in extra innings.
After the game, with Díaz’s ERA sitting at 5.50 on the season, the Mets are surely scrambling to figure out what is going on with their star closer. After the second blown save in Philadelphia, pitching coach Jeremy Hefner, in a conversation with SNY’s Andy Martino, shared that he believed the pitch clock is one of the reasons for Díaz’s struggles, while also citing some issues with his mechanics.
Meanwhile, after the ugly loss on Saturday, manager Carlos Mendoza told reporters that confidence is Diaz’s main issue right now. Díaz, himself, seemingly confirmed Mendoza’s theory, saying after the game to reporters that his body, “is not an issue.” Rather saying, “I think I’m thinking too much.”
Edwin Díaz. Mandatory Credit: Rhona Wise-USA TODAY Sports
Confidence, mechanics, or the pitch clock, whatever Díaz has ailing him, the clearest difference post-injury is Díaz’s velocity being down. Entering Saturday, the average velocity on his four-seam fastball sat at 96.9 mph. During his dominate 2022 season, the pitch owned an average velocity of 99.1. His slider has also seen a velocity drop; by nearly two miles per hour. This usually indicates a mechanics issue, something pitching coach Jeremy Hefner has already cited as being a potential issue with Díaz.
With all this being said, the most interesting aspect of all this is Diaz’s underlying metrics, entering Saturday, were quite strong. He owned an xERA and xBA of 2.30 and .162, respectively. These figures ranked in the 95th and 98th percentiles, respectively. Additionally, the average exit velocity off Díaz’s pitches, the whiff rate he has generated, and the strikeout rate, all ranked in the league’s 98th percentile. The analytical profile he owns indicates an elite pitcher like what he has shown to be the last couple seasons he was healthy. Unfortunately, all that matters are the actual results an individual gets, and so far, they have been very poor.
Outside the velocity being down, the other main issues he has had so far this season has been walking batters (33rd percentile entering Saturday) and allowing the home run ball. After Saturday, Díaz has now allowed five home runs on the season, a number that is only one less than the six he combined to allow across the 2021 and 2022 seasons. Arguably, the worst area Díaz has been, from an analytic standpoint, is in barrel rate by opposing hitters. That figure currently ranks below the league’s 50th percentile. For whatever reason, when the opposition has been making contact against Díaz, they have been barreling the ball up, thus the long ball issues.
At the end of the day, if the expected statistics are any indication, Díaz should slowly start working his way back closer to the pitcher he was the last two seasons he played, rather than the one that posted a 5.59 ERA in his first season with the team. More time as he continues to recovery from the debilitating injury he suffered at the World Baseball Classic should positively correlate with stronger production.
The hope, of course, by everyone is that happens sooner rather than later, because, if it doesn’t it appears that Díaz’s role as a closer, for the time being, may be in jeopardy. After Saturday’s game, manager Carlos Mendoza did point out that moving Díaz to “softer spots” to help him get going is a possibility. Maybe this is exactly what he needs as he works his way back from injury.
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