It is no secret that Jeff McNeil has been struggling at the plate, slashing .230/.309/.304 on the season. In this week’s edition of Statistical Spotlight, let’s take an in-depth look at McNeil’s batting statistics and identify areas that need to improve. Baseball Savant released a new metric, bat tracking, which calculates a player’s bat speed. […]
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It is no secret that Jeff McNeil has been struggling at the plate, slashing .230/.309/.304 on the season. In this week’s edition of Statistical Spotlight, let’s take an in-depth look at McNeil’s batting statistics and identify areas that need to improve.
Baseball Savant released a new metric, bat tracking, which calculates a player’s bat speed. It is calculated at the sweet spot of the bat which is six inches from the head of the bat. Fast swings are considered 75-plus mph. In addition, also calculated is the swing’s squared-up rate which details how much of the highest possible exit velocity is available compared to what exit velocity was actually obtained for the pitch.
For example, if a player earned a 60% square-up rate, that means that the player earned 60% of the maximum possible exit velocity. These new metrics, combined with some existing ones, such as exit velocity and hard hit rate, can tell us a lot more about the swings that a player takes.
Jeff McNeil. Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports
Jeff McNeil’s average bat speed is only 67.6 mph. This ranks him at 211th among active major leaguers. Additionally, he is only averaging a 3.8% fast swing rate. McNeil’s average exit velocity is 86 mph, ranking 235th in the majors. He also only has 34 contacts with a 95-plus mph exit velocity.
McNeil, however, is doing a good job at connecting with the sweet spot of the bat. He has squared up 76 pitches, ranking him 18th in the majors. The conclusion that can be drawn from this data is that while McNeil is finding the barrel of the bat to the ball, he simply is not swinging fast enough to drive pitches. Because his swing is slower, this results in a lower exit velocity, and less hard hit balls.
The below graph is provided by Baseball Savant. The blue means that Jeff McNeil is below average for bat speed in comparison to active major leaguers. That average sits at 71.2 mph. He is able to increase his bat speed more on pitches that are middle and down in the strike zone and struggles with pitches that are up and outside.
The slower bat speed can be a direct correlation as to why Jeff McNeil has been struggling at the plate. His season WAR is 0.1, which is a far cry from his career average per season. While bat tracking statistics are a new phenomenon, they can help paint a fuller picture for players at the plate. If McNeil can speed his swing up, and continue to connect on the sweet spot of the bat, then look for a positive change in his batting numbers.
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