The New York Mets’ pitching staff has gotten off to a roaring start this season, ranking third in the National League in team ERA at 3.53 while deadlocked with the Seattle Mariners for the seventh highest fWAR of any unit at 2.9. A lot of their prosperity can be linked back to the bullpen, but […]
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The New York Mets’ pitching staff has gotten off to a roaring start this season, ranking third in the National League in team ERA at 3.53 while deadlocked with the Seattle Mariners for the seventh highest fWAR of any unit at 2.9. A lot of their prosperity can be linked back to the bullpen, but the starting rotation shouldn’t be overlooked within that conversation as well. Luis Severino, José Butto and Sean Manaea have all enjoyed varying levels of success thus far, though a pair of weak links alongside that group may force the team to make some tough roster decisions in the near future.
Photo by Ed Delany of Metsmerized
Adrian Houser’s 2024 campaign opened on a promising note with a quality outing against the Detroit Tigers on April 4, ceding just one run over five innings, but it’s been all downhill ever since for veteran right-hander. In his last three starts, Houser has allowed 15 earned runs over 14 1/3 innings while walking 11 batters. Command has suddenly become a teamwide epidemic, though no one has been snakebitten by it more than Houser, whose BB/9 rate of 6.52 this season is nearly three points higher than his career average of 3.52.
Houser’s struggles can also be partially attributed to a loss of feel for his sinker, which was a downright dominant offering early in his career, as well as his inability to limit hard contact after excelling at doing so in the past. As he sits with a 7.45 ERA and 1.76 WHIP, the Mets need an imminent turnaround, or else he is in danger of losing his spot in the rotation as patience wears thin just a month into the season.
On a similar note, José Quintana’s shortcomings are one of the early headlines for New York. While his ERA isn’t quite as unsightly as Houser’s at 4.21 through five outings, Quintana’s results have been anything but ideal. Sporting a 4.91 BB/9 rate while failing to pitch more than 5 2/3 innings in a start this season, Quintana’s lack of control coupled with poor precision on his secondary pitches and an extraordinary amount of quality contact against him have all sounded the alarms as he labors through the opening portion of the year as the team’s de facto No. 1 starter.
With both Quintana and Houser set to hit the free agent market after the season, the possibility that the Mets turn to another option to fill one of their spots should neither pitcher turn it around isn’t unfathomable. Quintana’s job would appear to be more secure than Houser’s, but desperate times call for desperate measures, and the club certainly has quality options at its disposal that are toiling away in the minor leagues.
Joey Lucchesi was a bright spot for the Mets in 2023, recording a 2.89 ERA across nine starts and 46 2/3 innings after returning from Tommy John surgery. The 30-year-old southpaw’s underlying numbers weren’t otherworldly, but he got the job done and figured to factor into the team’s plans in 2024. After failing to break camp with the team, however, Lucchesi was sent down to Triple-A Syracuse to open the year, where he’s pitched to a 2.42 ERA through five appearances. With Tylor Megill and David Peterson on the mend, both of whom fall into the same mold as him, Lucchesi stands as the Mets’ best veteran option within the organization to temporarily take over a rotation spot.
Perhaps the Mets’ best pitching prospect in recent years, Christian Scott possesses tantalizing upside and may already be one of the organization’s top five starters. Rated as the No. 5 prospect in the farm system by MLB Pipeline, Scott burst on the scene last season after putting up a 2.57 ERA over 19 starts and 87 2/3 innings across three levels. The hard-throwing right-hander hasn’t skipped a beat in 2024 either, posting 34 strikeouts and a 3.48 ERA through four outings in Syracuse.
The Mets will likely have to remain cautious in limiting Scott’s workload as he settles into his role as a full-time starter after initially profiling as a reliever, but there’s no reason to believe they won’t give him an opportunity to prove himself at the major league level in the near future. With both Quintana and Houser on thin ice, there is a potential opening available for either Lucchesi or Scott to take and run with as the team looks to maintain the momentum the pitching staff has built up so far this season.
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