If, as Harold Wilson once quipped ‘a week is a long time in politics’, then six weeks will feel like an eternity for Labour election chiefs.
As the starting gun on the 2024 General Election was fired, Keir Starmer’s party was leading the Tories by 20 points in nearly every national poll, putting them in prime position to win for the first time since 2005.
Power is firmly within Labour’s reach and they know it.
But, as elections throughout history have shown us, the road to Number 10 isn’t going to be as smooth as the polls suggest.
For Labour, the ghosts of 1992 loom large. The campaign changed everything and Neil Kinnock’s party lost its fourth election in a row.
I spoke to MPs yesterday who also pointed to the 2017 campaign when Theresa May’s lead evaporated within weeks resulting in an unexpected hung parliament.
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This election campaign will be no different. There will be a rollercoaster of twists and turns and dramatic events between now and 4 July.
We may well have lived through one of the most shocking periods of political turbulence in our lifetimes, looked on with horror as the Tories partied in Downing Street during the pandemic, and witnessed them preside over economic calamity and chaos in the NHS, but they remain one of the most successful election winning machines in world politics.
The Tories are ruthless campaigners and will stop at nothing to cling on to power. Expect one of the most negative and personal campaign’s the country has ever seen from Lynton Crosby’s protege Isaac Levido – the Tories’ chief election strategist.
Labour is of course confident but bruising defeats of elections’ past will see a cast iron discipline. There will be no complacency, instead a razor sharp 1997-style campaign focus on the key marginal constituencies will now be executed.
But what else will Labour need to do to form their first government for 14 years?
Key to Labour’s campaign is message discipline.
Candidates need to remember that repetition is key. Change will be Labour’s watchword and the party has produced a pledge card outlining its first steps for government, with economic stability at the heart of the offer.
The pledge card helped Blair in 1997, 2001 and again in 2005. Now, like then, the party has a core message. The pledges need to become the bedrock of the campaign. They need to stick to the script and avoid veering away from it.
Labour also needs to put their best communicators font and centre of the campaign. Wes Streeting, Rachel Reeves and Bridget Phillipson need to be on the airwaves promoting Labour’s message and show they’re a serious government in waiting.
The Party must also utilise their dynamic deputy Angela Rayner who will be a key figure in rebuilding the Red Wall.
Campaign bosses must drop any ideas of razzmatazz from the campaign. As the Democrats did in the 2020 US election, Labour needs to play it safe. If this means Stamer is accused of being boring then so be it. He simply needs to be presented as a steady and safe pair of hands – the man who will fix the country after years of Tory turmoil.
Labour’s team must be ready to rapidly rebut Tory attack lines too. They will face an aggressive onslaught about plans for the economy and taxation. The gloves must be off when it comes to repelling false claims before they get any traction with voters.
More widely, Labour’s attacks need to be sharp and focused and penetrate people’s social media with daily reminders of the Tories’ disastrous record in office.
Labour’s manifesto launch is also a big moment. It is the chance to showcase a prospectus that promises hope of a better future for millions of people crying out for change.
They need to keep the campaign on their agenda and remember it is a marathon, not a sprint.
A famous Tory attack advertisement once declared ‘Britain is booming. Don’t let Labour blow it’.
In 2024, Britain isn’t booming. Labour can’t blow it.
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