Spending a rare off-day thinking about what direction the 2024 Guardians go in next
The Guardians are a first place team, but I want more.
This is a pretty common sentiment with fans, but I write the above sentence with no feelings of discontent or angst. I simply believe that Cleveland has a pretty good baseball team on its hands and some changes can be made to help the team get to the next level. Hopefully, Chris Antonetti has a surprise or two up his sleeve in this regard. While we wait to see, I want to quickly outline a few suggestions below and would enjoy hearing any further thoughts from you in the comments below.
I will explain why my first choice is Jose Tena to replace Arias in just a minute, but I want to first discuss Arias. The best asset Arias has in his favor is his age. He is still only 24 years old and it is very difficult for young players to succeed in the major leagues. Despite a horrific start to 2024 against right-handed pitching, Arias still has a career 103 wRC+ vs. RHP. We have all SEEN the potential he has with his glove, range and cannon arm, as well as an impressive amount of defensive versatility. We can all sympathize with his having to deal with sporadic playing time. He has excellent bat speed and hits the ball hard at a greater rate than his compatriots at shortstop.
Ok, now for the bad. At almost 500 major league plate appearances, Arias is at a 75 wRC+. His chase rates have dropped this season with his walk rate (and neither were good), his 54% career groundball rate and 3.4 career launch angle don’t appear to be particularly correctable, and, perhaps most distressingly, he hasn’t been a particularly notable defender with 2 outs above average in 489 innings at shortstop, 2 OAA in 170 innings at first-base, 0 OAA in 62 innings at second-base, -3 OAA in 259 innings at third-base, and -3 OAA in the outfield. Defensive Runs Saved have him underwater at all positions except first base where he has 1 DRS. He’s not a particular asset on the bases, either, with just 1.4 Baserunning Runs Above Average for his career.
I don’t want to spend a ton of time talking about this, but I do think it’s fair to mention that on-air personalities for the Guardians in TV and radio have all mentioned some concerns with Arias’s effort as points in time over the past two seasons. For whatever my personal sources are worth, rumors have long been around that, like many young players, he may have been a little more excited to MAKE the big leagues than to improve, grow and establish himself in the big leagues. That isn’t an unusual phenomenon and young players usually learn the need to change their mindset in short order, so I don’t say this to condemn Arias or castigate him in any manner. I do think it’s relevant to this topic, so I share it here, accordingly.
While I think it’s fair to view all off-hand comments and rumblings with skepticism, I can’t help but note that I have observed several times where Arias does not seem particularly motivated to run out groundballs. and I also have a few strangely misplayed balls in the field that stick out in my memory from him, as well. I am not someone who loses my mind over players jogging out the routine groundball now and then, but, man, if you’re going to hit the amount of groundballs Arias does, and if your calling card is your glove, and if you’re trying to make your way in the big leagues, you should really probably give your full effort on each groundball you hit or you field. I am not sure I can argue in any meaningful way that he has done that, and I know specifically last year, the Bally’s broadcast reported that Jose Ramirez sat him down and explained the need to hustle on every ball he hits, so it has been something worth addressing at least on one occasion.
With all this said, I support a demotion of Arias to Columbus. It seems like a good way to give him an opportunity to reassess his approach as a major league player. The problem is that it removes a valuable option teams may covet for him if the Guardians look to trade him. For me, if that option is a big enough deal to the Guardians that they are unwilling to demote Arias, then it’s time to look to trade him, instead.
In Arias’s place, I would promote Jose Tena. To the Scheemann hive, I point to Jose Tena’s career splits vs. lefties. In 414 at-bats since 2021 against LHP, Tena has a .798 OPS. In 271 at-bats in the same time period vs. LHP, Schneemann has a .621 OPS. Since being called up to the Columbus last summer, Tena has a 100 wRC+ that includes a literally and figuratively cold April this season where his wRC+ was 45. Most importantly, Tena is an excellent defender at third base, shortstop and second base so can fit easily into the utility infield role with Brayan Rocchio given total control of the reigns to seize the role as Guardians shortstop of the future.
I know many want to see Daniel Schneemann and his 169 wRC+ and double-digit walk-rate on the Guardians. I am sympathetic and if the Guardians go that direction, I’ll gladly support their decision. I do, however, prefer Tena for a few reasons: While I’m not especially concerned about making room for Schneemann on the 40-man, it is an additional challenge that promoting Tena doesn’t cause. I am not at all opposed to seeing if Schneemann is the rare late bloomer who has discovered something at the plate, but he is not the defender Tena is. For Schneemannators, however, I do acknowledge that he has been a better base stealer than Tena, with 21 steals and 4 caught stealing in 2023-2024 while Tena is at 20 and 10. Schneemann offers utility as an outfielder but, for me, given the Guardians can play David Fry in the outfield, and he has far less swing and miss in his approach than Tena. However, that doesn’t offer enough of a benefit to forego the superior defense that Tena plays on the dirt, or Tena’s ability to better handle LHP.
I will also mention that while neither player is especially adept at it, Tena has been notably better than Schneemann at pulling fly balls in the air which can help find some offensive value at the margins. If, by the All-Star break, Tena fails to provide a good presence in the utility role, it will be time to bite the bullet and create a roster spot for the possibility of the lightening strike a breakout from 27 year old Schneemann would be, if he’s continuing to perform.
So, demote Gabriel Arias, promote Jose Tena for the utility infielder role, hand the reigns of shortstop of the future to Brayan Rocchio (until Juan Brito breaks out this summer and then Travis Bazzana is drafted, both causing the team to switch Andres Gimenez to short to accommodate one of those two as a second baseman and the other as a left-fielder, thanks, bye).
We all know it, sadly. Ramon Laureano has hit a wall as a big leaguer. Laureano has a 60 wRC+ this year for Cleveland. This, in itself, would not be particularly alarming given that since coming to Cleveland, Laureano is still at a 90 wRC+ overall. However, the more alarming statistic is that Laureano over the past two seasons has declined to below average against fastballs after being reliably above average against them his whole career. Performance against fastballs declining is one of the most reliable indicators of hitter decline. I will say, however, that Laureano still has excellent average bat speed, so I think I will understand if the team gives him continued leash to try to figure things out vs. LHP. Defensively, things are a mixed bag for Laureano as OAA has him at -2 and DRS has him at +3. My guess is that he’s still an asset in right field but should never be seen in center again (the latter conclusion is generally agreed upon by both fielding metrics).
I have never been a huge fan of Johnathan Rodriguez because he is very much the Oscar Gonzalez profile; he swings a misses a good bit and hits way too many groundballs, but when he connects, he hits it a ton. I do think that, with the Guardians adding him to the 40-man roster in the offseason, it is time to see what he can do in the majors. Putting aside an oddly poor beginning to 2024 vs. lefties, Rodriguez has put up an OPS over .900 against LHP in the minors over the past two years. Steamer projects Rodriguez for 103 wRC+ and ZiPS has him at 93 wRC+ if promoted now. I don’t think the juice of opportunity cost and potential sunk cost fallacy justify the squeez of keeping Laureano on the roster at this point. Oh look, Johnny Rockets just hit a bomb to back up my point:
Johnny, we missed these pic.twitter.com/ckwvdCl4jd
— Columbus Clippers (@CLBClippers) May 16, 2024
Give Rodriguez regular opportunity to start in right-field against LHP, hand over the full-time centerfield reigns to Tyler Freeman with Will Brennan spelling him there as needed, and give Rodriguez opportunities to pinch-hit against lefty relievers and let’s see what he can offer, as we simultaneously look at the last item on my off-day to-do list...
We will spend some time in June looking at potential trade targets for the Guardians across the league but Ken Rosenthal wrote today about the plain fact that the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim are bad and may be willing to trade some players. As Rosenthal points out, it’s impossible to predict an Angels trade because their owner is a wildcard who may suddenly demand an imminently tradeable asset stay (i.e. Shohei Ohtani). But, if good sense prevails, the Angels should definitely be willing to trade left-handed starter Tyler Anderson, who would interest me, and right-fielder Taylor Ward, whom I’ve long coveted.
Across MLB, amidst a sluggish start for hitters overall, hitters who bat fifth in the order have a 101 wRC+ in 2024. Guardians’ fifth hitters have an 86 wRC+. Maybe David Fry is the answer there, but questions remain in the top of the Guardians’ order where a healthy Kwan answers the leadoff issue and Ramirez and Josh Naylor nail down two spots but a #2 or #3 hitter isn’t clearly identifiable,
In this role, batting 2nd, 3rd, or 5th, Taylor Ward would be a tremendous answer. Since 2021, Ward has a 121 wRC+ overall including an eye-popping 133 wRC+ vs. left-handed pitching during that time. Ward just turned 30 but rather than slow down, his barrel-rate has experienced a notable uptick this season. OAA has him as an above-average right-fielder while DRS has him as a little below-average but not unplayable there. For me, a lineup of...
1. Kwan - LF
2. Ward - RF/DH
3. Ramirez - 3B
4. Naylor - 1B
5. Manzardo/Fry - DH
6. Gimenez - 2B
7. Freeman - CF
8. Bo Naylor - C
9. Rocchio - SS
...looks a lot more formidable in a push to catch the Twins and allows for you to keep either Will Brennan or Estevan Florial as a utility outfielder and consistent starter vs. RHP in center or right.
Of course, Rosenthal also mentioned Jo Adell who has also been a coveted target of mine for a while. If the Guardians’ want to buy in on his breakout season, I am also there for that as both his timeline and his tools are a different level of exciting than Ward’s are. In any case, Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff should be bending Angel GM Perry Minasian’s ear a lot over the next couple months, in my humble opinion.
I am grateful and content with a hot start to the 2024 season for the Guardians. I’m hopeful they can manage a series win against the Twins this weekend, but I also think there are some small (and big) changes that can increase their chances at securing an eventual division title. We’ll write more about further ideas as the season goes on, but we are always interested in YOUR thoughts, so share any other ideas or reactions below.
