This year’s Oscars lineup in the Best Adapted Screenplay category is stacked. The nominees are “American Fiction” (Cord Jefferson), “Oppenheimer” (Christopher Nolan), “Barbie” (Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach), “Poor Things” (Tony McNamara), and “The Zone of Interest” (Jonathan Glazer). All of those films are also Best Picture nominees, which really tells you just how strong these contenders are.
“American Fiction” is the frontrunner as we head into Oscars weekend but let’s take a closer look at the academy’s tastes in this category. What sort of films win here? Let’s take a look.
As you can see, novels are the academy’s favorite source material, accounting for three out of the last 1o winners: Sarah Polley for “Women Talking,” Taika Waititi for “Jojo Rabbit,” and James Ivory for “Call Me By Your Name.” Meanwhile, there were two winners each for adaptations of plays, memoirs, and non-fiction books. The play winners were Florian Zeller and Christopher Hampton for “The Father” and Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney for “Moonlight.” The memoir winners were Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel, and Kevin Willmott for “BlacKkKlansman,” and John Ridley for “12 Years a Slave.” And the non-fiction book winners were Adam McKay and Charles Randolph for “The Big Short” and Graham Moore for “The Imitation Game.” There was one outlier — that was Sian Heder‘s win for “CODA,” which was based on the 2014 French-Belgian movie “La Famille Bélier.”
So, novels are the favorite form of adaptations followed by plays, memoirs, and non-fiction books. But what does that mean for this year? Well, here’s the rundown on the five nominees for Best Adapted Screenplay.
“American Fiction” is written and directed by Jefferson, who used the 2001 novel “Erasure” by Percival Everett as his source material. The movie follows a Black author who turns to hypocrisy by using a form of art he claims to hate in order to find success. Jefferson has never been nominated for an Oscar.
“Oppenheimer” depicts how J. Robert Oppenheimer created the atomic bomb and is based on the 2005 non-fiction book “American Prometheus” by Kai Bird and Martin J. Sherwin. Nolan, who directed the movie, adapted the book. Nolan has five total Oscar nominations to his name, including two for writing. The first came in 2002 for “Memento,” which he wrote with his brother Jonathan Nolan. The second came in 2011 for “Inception.” Both were for Best Original Screenplay.
“Barbie” is directed by Gerwig, who co-wrote the script with her real-life partner Baumbach. The story follows Margot Robbie as the titular Barbie, who swaps Barbie Land for the real world after suffering an existential crisis. This is based on Mattel’s toy line and it is the first ever Best Adapted Screenplay nominee to be adapted from toys. Gerwig was nominated for Best Original Screenplay and Best Director in 2018 for “Lady Bird” while she also picked up an Adapted Screenplay bid for “Little Women” in 2018. Baumbach, meanwhile, secured Best Original Screenplay and Best Picture nominations in 2020 for “Marriage Story” and was also nominated for Original Screenplay in 2006 for “The Squid and the Whale.”
“Poor Things” follows a young woman who is brought back to life. She subsequently explores the world with untold passion and vigor. The movie is adapted from the 1992 novel by Alasdair Gray with McNamara on script duty. McNamara came close to winning Original Screenplay in 2019 alongside Deborah Davis for “The Favourite” but they lost to “Green Book.”
“The Zone of Interest” director Glazer adapted the 2014 novel of the same name by Martin Amis. This tells the true story of Auschwitz commandant Rudolf Höss trying to build a dream life for his wife and family while living next to the concentration camp. Glazer has never been nominated for an Oscar, although this is based on a novel so it may be right up the academy’s street.
So, three of the nominees are based on novels, one is based on a non-fiction book, and one is based on a line of plastic toys. Currently, we are predicting “American Fiction” to win this award as Jefferson Best Adapted Screenplay at both BAFTA and the Critics Choice Awards. Watch out for “Barbie,” though, which won Best Original Screenplay at the Critics Choice Awards before the academy ruled it to be an adapted script. “Barbie” is the dark horse here while “American Fiction” is the favorite, which checks out as it is based on a novel.
Make your predictions at Gold Derby now. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. See our latest prediction champs. Can you top our esteemed leaderboards next? Always remember to keep your predictions updated because they impact our latest racetrack odds, which terrify Hollywood chiefs and stars. Don’t miss the fun. Speak up and share your huffy opinions in our famous forums where 5,000 showbiz leaders lurk every day to track latest awards buzz. Everybody wants to know: What do you think? Who do you predict and why?
SIGN UP for Gold Derby’s free newsletter with latest predictions