Using everything we know about Augusta, only these players are capable of winning
It’s Christmas Eve for golf gamblers, though it has been a terrible golf betting season for me. There is no denying it. For that reason we will be switching up the thought process behind this week’s column.
A special week demands a special approach.
Masters Leaderboard: Live leaderboard, Schedule, Tee times
I’ve spent the better part of the year trying to identify which golfers can win in a given week by identifying (poorly) what I thought to be statistical identifiers that indicated potential future success on a given course. This week, we will be doing this in reverse. We will be identifying which golfers cannot win at Augusta and therefore whittling down the list of entries into a definitive list of golfers who can win The Masters.
We know a few things that statistically matter, and it is important to touch on them. Fair warning, this week’s column is a bit more of an art than a science, much like the game required to master Alistair MacKenzie’s crown jewel (but wait, Guru, they’re playing Augusta National not Cypress Point. I digress…).
Augusta National is the most statistically predictive course on the calendar by a fairly wide margin. Players who play well here play well here often. But course history is not the only thing that matters this week
What nearly every winner at Augusta has in common — including the outliers that we all found ourselves rooting against on Sunday (*cough* Danny Willett *cough*) — is that they were hitting the ever-loving you-know-what out of the golf ball leading into Masters Week. You must be in form from tee-to-green, so much so in fact, that it is our golden rule on a list of very dumb rules for identifying the losers this week.
In simple terms, to figure out who will go home green jacket-less we’re eliminating players who check any of these boxes:
However, if you have failed any of the above criteria, you can still win, so long as you are the greatest golfer of all time.
Starting with the 89 players in the field, this narrows down the list to 12 players. Let’s reveal them in reverse order of their recent tee-to-green form. Please be clear I am not advising you to bet all of these as I don’t think there is any possible way for that to be profitable, I’m just telling you the winner is coming from this list.
The rest is on you.
(Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
SG T2G (Last 36 Rounds): 22nd
Congratulations Shane Lowry, you are the first golfer on the definitive list of golfers who can win The Masters. The former Open Champion does not have the game you typically think of when you think of a Masters Champion. He’s lost some distance, ranking just 75th in the field in Driving Distance recently (Note: whenever I’m referring to recent form I’m talking about the last 36 Measured Rounds, as stated above). However, he’s shown a routine ability to compete at Augusta with three Top 25’s in his last three tries, including a solo 3rd in 2022. Lowry does not excel in any one statistical category but his strong all around play, experience, and proven ability to be a big game hunter just barely gets him on the list.
(Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
SG T2G Form: 17th
We had to skip over four entries in the most important determinant statistic (SG: Tee To Green) in the upper quartile to get to our next golfer who can win The Masters. Unfortunately, for Tommy Fleetwood (Xander rule), Lucas Glover (never shown he can compete), Chris Kirk (a rule I made up that says Chris Kirk isn’t winning The Masters) and Austin Eckroat (debutante), our next golfer who can win The Masters is Cameron Young. He has a game built for Augusta with elite ball-striking, and though the course history isn’t extensive, he’s shown that his excellent tee to green play belongs here with a T7 in just his second career Masters start in 2023.
(Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
SG T2G Form: 33rd
But Guru, you said they must be in the upper-quartile of recent tee-to-green form to qualify, and you also said you’d be listing them in reverse order of said statistic?! I make the rules here and I reserve the right to make up rules to fit my narrative. Cameron Smith can win The Masters because Cameron Smith has proven he can go toe-to-toe with the biggest names in golf and win the biggest events. He’s also proven he can compete at Augusta, but not so many times without winning that he’s proven he doesn’t have the mental fortitude. Make no mistake about it, if Cameron Smith wins it’s because he’s chipping and putting in a way that few golfers can around here. Smith doesn’t really belong on this list for any reason other than I’ve decided he does, and therefore he’s on it.
(Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
SG T2G Form: 13th
DJ needs no introduction, the 2020 Masters Champion is still one of the best drivers of the golf ball in the world, and he’s proven he can do it here. This is a depressed price on a LIV golfer who has a game that fits Augusta nearly perfectly. Ideally he’d hit a draw once in a while but who cares? I’m candidly not sure just how much we can trust LIV strokes gained statistics, but 40-1 on a golfer who has won here, and is one of the best golfers of his generation, and ranks second in the field in SG: OTT, and third in Driving Distance is a good way to find yourself on the list. My sincere apologies to the other upper quartile recent tee-to-green golfers who were skipped over before landing on Johnson — Tyrell Hatton (newly created headache rule), Ludvig Åberg (debutante), and Akshay Bhatia (debutante) but it just ain’t happening.
(Photo by Warren Little/Getty Images)
SG T2G Form: 11th
Apologies to another friend of the column, Justin Thomas, for getting skipped over, but unfortunately you cannot just part ways with Bones — and replace him with Patrick Cantlay’s old caddy of all people! — just before Augusta and find yourself on the list. I’m frankly appalled by this number on Corey Conners, who is one of the best ball-strikers on Earth. A 2023 missed cut notwithstanding, Conners has two Top 10 finishes at Augusta in his last three times out. Conners can’t putt, but he can hit it close enough to the flag to not have to, ranking third in the field in recent SG: Approach. Welcome to the list, Corey.
(Photo by Raj Mehta/Getty Images)
SG T2G Form: 10th
Will Si Woo Kim win The Masters? Likely not. Can he? Yes. Si Woo has a nice combination of course history with a string of solid Augusta finishes in a row while never being close enough to winning to be deemed a choker. He’s playing excellent golf, ranking inside the Top 10 in recent form tee-to-green. In some ways he feels like a guy flying significantly under the radar. The putter will likely be an achilles heel as it often is, but in any case, he finds himself on the list.
Adam Cairns-USA TODAY Sports
SG T2G Form: 8th
Another guru favorite, Tony Finau, has been skipped over when looking at recent tee-to-green form. Unfortunately, the Xander rule could also be renamed the Finau rule. He simply hasn’t shown the win equity at Augusta despite several chances to do so, nor has he really shown it anywhere. That brings us to one, Rory Daniel McIlroy. Should Rory also be subject to the Xander rule at Augusta? Likely yes. However, as stated, when chasing the career grand slam, said rules do not apply. This is the last jewel in the crown of Rory’s illustrious career. I genuinely could see him hanging it up if he wins. I am prepared to be hurt again. Welcome to the list, Mr. McIlroy.
(Photo by Warren Little/Getty Images)
SG T2G Form: 7th
Hideki not only has a green jacket to his name, his consistency at Augusta is outstanding. He’s in fine form, finishing T12 or better in his last three starts and ranks first in the entire field in recent SG: Around The Green form —which I’m sure the broadcast booth will beat us over the head with every time someone has one of those “tricky Augusta chip shots”. It matters, and it matters that he’s pairing his typically outstanding ball-striking with some of the best short game play of his career. Before even looking at the numbers, he was making the list. And if the numbers said he wasn’t on the list, I was putting him on it anyway.
Rob Schumacher-USA TODAY Sports
SG T2G Form: 3rd
Alas, we skip over three more golfers who have obvious disqualifiers: Bryson DeChambeau (Par 67 Rule), Xander Schauffle (Xander rule), and Sergio Garcia (a rule I made up that says in a just world, Sergio Garcia cannot have two green jackets). Jon Rahm is serving up one of the best-looking Masters Champion Dinners in recent memory as he defends his 2023 green jacket. I’ll admit I thought quite long and not really that hard about including a rule that you cannot be chasing a back-to-back Masters title. Only three golfers (Woods 2001-02, Faldo 1989-90, and Nicklaus 1965-66) have ever done it. Rahm is good enough to join them, and his ridiculous posturing about LIV moving to 72 holes and talk of a merger after accepting a small nation state’s worth of money to go play in shorts aside, I think he’s as good of a bet to repeat as anyone who has come before him.
(Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
SG T2G Form: 2nd
Narrative alert! Never mind the fact that Niemann is hitting the ball better than ever. He, unlike many of his LIV peers, has been grinding to ensure he’d qualify to be here. Clearly it means something to him, and combining an extreme level of motivation and mind-bogglingly good ball-striking is a hell of a recipe. He’s my favorite bet this week, will be a staple in every DFS lineup I play and so on and so forth. He’s made just three starts at Augusta, and has improved every time, going from T40, to 35th, to T16. I think he gets over the hump and becomes the first Chilean golfer to win a major and wear the Green Jacket.
(Michael Madrid-USA TODAY Network)
SG T2G Form: 1st
You can make an argument that this should’ve been the only name on the list. If Scheffler is actually going to putt like he has over the past month, you can start taking his measurements now. He’s the best ball striker since prime Tiger and has shown zero signs of slowing down. The 2022 Masters Champion shapes it both ways, and has two wins and a T2 in his last three starts. We’re witnessing a historic run, one of those that people likely won’t truly appreciate until several years from now. He has the shortest odds since prime Tiger to win here and it’s well deserved. Just please keep it close until the back nine on Sunday to give us some entertainment.
(Rob Schumacher-USA TODAY Sports)
SG T2G Form: Don’t Care
Tiger Woods can win The Masters because I said he can.
