It’s not hard to see why the state of the economy and the price of goods and services will play a major role in determining the outcome of the 2024 presidential race.
A survey conducted by Gallup at the end of March found that 55% of Americans say they care about inflation "a great deal," the highest level of concern recorded among all the issues listed.
The economy, health care costs and federal spending also ranked among the top issues. In fact, the only non-economic topic among the top six issues by respondents in Gallup’s poll was "crime and violence," which was identified by 53% of Americans as a highly important problem.
With these and other, similar polls in mind, it’s not hard to see why political analysts are convinced that the state of the economy and the price of goods and services will play a major role in determining the outcome of the 2024 race.
As Democratic strategist James Carville once famously quipped, "It’s the economy, stupid!"
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Although the economic track records of President Biden and former President Donald Trump are no guarantee of future performance, they will likely have a substantial impact on how voters view the two candidates. That’s why Biden and Trump have spent significant time in recent months touting their alleged economic achievements, with each candidate declaring that he has substantially outperformed the other.
But which candidate’s stump speeches more closely align with the economic data? To answer that important question, I conducted a detailed analysis of current and past government reports, paying special attention to data points that are underreported in the media. What I found is that the available data shows that the U.S. economy under Trump was much stronger than it has been with Biden in the White House.
One of the most significant data points that illustrates the difference is full-time employment. The Biden administration has spent significant resources trying to convince Americans that we are currently witnessing a booming jobs market, but that’s a highly misleading claim.
It’s true that a high number of jobs have been added since Biden has entered the White House. According to the White House, 15 million jobs have been created since he took office. However, most of those jobs were recovered after the COVID-19-related lockdowns ended. They were not newly created jobs.
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According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the current employment level is about 3 million jobs higher than it was in January 2020, just before the COVID-19 pandemic began.
By contrast, the economy added 6.33 million jobs in Trump’s first three years in office, more than double Biden’s figure.
More importantly, there is a stark difference in the quality of the jobs added under both presidents.
Compared to pre-COVID-19 levels, a little over 2 million full-time jobs have been added under Biden, along with more than 1.18 million part-time jobs.
As I already noted, in Trump’s first three years, total employment rose by 6.33 million, but unlike with Biden, nearly all of those jobs were full-time positions. Part-time employment increased by just 17,000 jobs from January 2017 to January 2020, less than 1% of the total number of added jobs.
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That means full-time employment was three times higher under Trump’s first three years than it has been so far with Biden in the White House.
This discrepancy has grown larger in recent months, too. The BLS reports that the number of Americans with full-time employment dropped by more than 1.7 million from November 2023 to the end of March 2024. With the exception of the COVID-19 pandemic and its associated government lockdowns, the recent November-March period represents the largest five-month decline in full-time employment since the Great Recession in 2009.
Biden’s job gains have also been much more dependent on government spending. Of the nearly 3 million jobs added since Biden has become president, about 16% have been government jobs.
In Trump’s first three years, 7.4% of the increase in total employment was due to government, less than half of the figure recorded under Biden.
Another radical difference between the two presidents is that Biden’s presidency has been marred by inflation.
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The Consumer Price Index, the most commonly used measure for inflation, shows that prices have skyrocketed by 19% since January 2021.
From January 2017 to March 2020, Americans experienced a 6.29% inflation rate, one-third of the Biden-era inflation figure.
There are dozens of other metrics showing that the economy under Trump was substantially better than it has been during Biden’s term. Rent was more affordable. Mortgage rates, real estate and gasoline prices were all lower, too.
Almost every important economic metric shows that the Trump administration’s policies were better for the economy. And the ones that don’t often only appear to favor Biden at first glance. A deeper look typically reveals that the situation is much different than it might seem initially.
Biden’s policies have failed our country. Hopefully, Americans have learned from his mistakes. If they have, they will soon demand that politicians enact reforms similar to those that made the pre-coronavirus Trump era so prosperous for the United States – lower taxes for all, fewer regulations, more support for small businesses, and policies that strengthen the domestic oil and gas industries.
