By Jim Zanotti
The Palestinians are an Arab people whose origins are in present-day Israel, the West Bank, and the Gaza Strip. The October 7, 2023, attacks on Israel—led by the Iran-backed Sunni Islamist group Hamas (a U.S.-designated foreign terrorist organization)—and subsequent conflict in Gaza have raised new challenges for U.S. policy in the region.
Palestinian issues that had arguably faded as a priority since the 2010s for the United States and many Arab states have returned to the forefront. Post-conflict governance in Gaza is one crucial question, along with potentially interrelated developments regarding political outcomes in the West Bank, the status of Jerusalem, risks of a broader regional war with Iran and its allies, and Israel’s efforts to improve its security and relations with Arab states.
Successive U.S. Presidents and Congresses have helped shape developments on Palestinian issues, including through humanitarian, economic, and non-lethal security assistance. Since the mid-1990s, U.S. officials have sought to actively facilitate a negotiated Israeli-Palestinian peace. Most U.S. Administrations since the early 2000s have voiced support for an eventual independent Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza, with a capital in East Jerusalem (and then-President Trump’s 2020 plan arguablyallowed for a variation on the idea).
The ongoing conflict has reportedly resulted in more than 1,500 Israeli and (according to the Hamas-controlled health ministry in Gaza) 38,000 Palestinian deaths, with some 120 hostages reportedly held by Hamas or other militants in Gaza. As Israel seeks to recover hostages and eliminateHamas’s military and governing capabilities, life has beenupended for Gaza’s citizens—with around 90% displaced, and most facing threats from the fighting, overcrowding, and acute shortages of food, water, and medical care. While U.S. officials have provided material support forIsrael’soperations against Hamas, they have pushed for a cease-fire and hostage release, and urged Israel to minimize threats to civilians in Gaza and increase humanitarian access.
The duration and intensity of Israeli military operations andthe issue of who manages Gaza’s security and governanceremain open questions. U.S. officials support the idea of a revamped Palestinian Authority (PA)—which currently exercises limited self-rule in the West Bank—returning to power in Gaza, despite public opposition from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and PA insistence that any return be linked with progress toward a two-state solution. Hamas forcibly seized Gaza from the PA in 2007.
About 3 million Palestinians live in the West Bank, plus an estimated 2.1 million in Gaza. Around 98% are Sunni Muslim, with a small Christian minority. Another estimated 1.9 million Palestinians live in Israel as citizens. Of the Palestinians living in the Middle East, about 5.9 million are registered refugees (in the West Bank, Gaza, Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria) whose claims to land in present-day Israel constitute a major issue of Israeli-Palestinian dispute. The U.N. Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA)—funded mostly by voluntary contributions from the United States and other countries— is mandated by the U.N. General Assembly to provide protection and services to these registered refugees.
Palestinian domestic politics are dominated by two factions. Fatah, a secular Arab nationalist faction, is the driving force within the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), which represents Palestinians internationally. Hamas has not accepted PLO recognition of Israel and constitutes the main opposition to Fatah. The United States and other Western countries have generally sought to bolster the Fatah-led PA vis-à-vis Hamas and support PA-Israel cooperation. The economy in the West Bank faces challenges related to unrest and violence, as well as considerable Israeli movement, access, and land use restrictions.
1993-1995: Israel-PLO mutual recognition, and their establishment of the PA with limited self-rule (subject to overall Israeli control) in the Gaza Strip and specified areas of the West Bank.
2000-2005: Second Palestinian intifada affects prospects for Israeli-Palestinian peace, and leads to tightened Israeli security in the West Bank.
2004-2005: PLO Chairman/PA President Yasser Arafat dies; Mahmoud Abbas succeeds him.
S005: Israel unilaterally disengages from Gaza, but remains in control of airspace and land/maritime access points.
2006: Hamas wins majority in Palestinian Legislative Council and leads new PA cabinet; Israel, United States, and European Union confine relations to PA President Mahmoud Abbas.
2007: West Bank-Gaza split: Hamas seizes control of Gaza Strip; Abbas reorganizes PA cabinet to lead West Bank; Israel and Egypt establish tight controls on goods and people transiting Gaza; this remains the status quo to date.
2007 - Present: Various rounds of U.S.-brokered Israeli- Palestinian peace negotiations (the last in 2013-2014) end unsuccessfully; PLO/PA increases efforts to gain membership in or support from international organizations.
2017: Trump Administration recognizes Jerusalem as Israel’s capital (without specifying the boundaries of Israeli sovereignty).
2022 - Present: Another round of Israel-West Bank violence—which increased after the October 2023 outbreak of Israel-Hamas war—is accompanied by rising (and partly Iran- backed) Palestinian militancy, Jewish ultra- nationalist influence in the Israeli government, and Israeli settler attacks on Palestinians.
2023 - Present: Hamas-led attacks in October 2023 trigger Israeli counteroffensive. PLO/PA supports cases against Israel in international courts and Israel increases economic restrictions on the PA while threatening others.
Since the Hamas victory in 2006 PA legislative elections, the PA has ruled by presidential decree, and has drawn some international criticism for alleged violations of the rule of law and civil liberties. Given the West Bank-Gaza split in 2007, it is unclear if elections will take place again. While PA President Mahmoud Abbas did not directly denounce the October 7 attacks, he has been cited as saying that he rejects the killing or abusing of civilians “on both sides,” and has blamed Hamas for providing Israel with “pretexts” for war. Polls show a spike in West Bank Palestinian support for Hamas that may stem from Hamas’s military actions, prisoner releases it has secured, and civilian suffering in Gaza. A new PA government took office in March 2024, but Abbas retains ultimate authority.
Abbas’s age (b. 1935) has contributed to speculation about leadership succession in the PLO and PA. Top advisers Hussein al Sheikh (on political affairs) and Majid Faraj (on security) have major profiles internationally, but limited domestic popular support. Marwan Barghouti attracts significant popular support; he has been imprisoned by Israel since 2002. Muhammad Dahlan, who was expelled from Fatah in 2011, was a former PA security chief in Gaza and enjoys support from some Arab states.
Amid ongoing conflict, Hamas’s future in Gaza is unclear. Hamas has controlled Gaza through its security forces and obtained resources from smuggling, informal “taxes,” and reported external assistance from Iran and private entities operating from some other regional countries. Yahya Sinwar has been Hamas’s leader for Gaza since 2017, and was a driving force behind the October 2023 attacks in Israel. Hamas also maintains a presence in the West Bank. Qatar-based Ismail Haniyeh is the leader of the political bureau that conducts Hamas’s worldwide dealings.
Before the ongoing conflict, Hamas engaged in major escalations with Israel in 2008-2009, 2012, 2014, and 2021. Hamas also constructed a vast network of tunnels—some under civilian areas—that apparently pose major challenges to dislodging it. In the previous conflicts and the present one, Hamas and other Gaza-based militants launched rockets toward Israeli population centers, and Israeli military strikes largely decimated Gaza’s infrastructure. Before October 2023, with key actors unsure of how to allow assistance for Gazanswithout bolstering Hamas’scapabilities, Israel permitted Qatar to provide certain types of funding to Gaza. Some observers have asserted that Israeli officials accepted the status quo with Hamas ruling Gaza, partly to avoid Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations.
Biden Administration officials publicly support a pathway toward a two-state solution, and oppose unilateral Israeli or Palestinian actions that incite violence or could obstruct peace efforts—including Israeli settlement building and Palestinian initiatives in international fora. Regarding U.S. bilateral aid (see Figure 1), via the Taylor Force Act (Div. S, Title X of P.L. 115-141) Congress has prohibited most Economic Support Fund (ESF) aid directly benefitting the PA unless the PLO/PA were to curtail domestically popular payments that arguably incentivize acts of terror.
The Biden Administration plans to allocate $1 billion in enacted FY2024 supplemental humanitarian aid for Gaza, but Congress has placed prohibitions on U.S. funding for UNRWA until March 25, 2025, after allegations surfaced in January 2024 that some UNRWA staff may have participated in the October 2023 attacks.
The U.S. proposal to have a revamped PA extend its rule into Gaza faces various challenges, including:
• Hamas’s deep roots and long-standing presence in Gaza. • Israeli leaders’ potential entrenchment of forces in Gaza and current resistance to a future Palestinian state.
•Questions about possible PA leadership reform.
•Israeli actions that have arguably threatened West Bank stability—including settler violence against Palestinians and a reduction in PA revenues. The Administration has imposed sanctions on some extremist Israeli actors, and has opposed Israeli measures harming PA finances.
