The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its 2024 Atlantic hurricane outlook today, which predicts an 85% chance of an above normal and possibly record-breaking season. The outlook forecasts 17 to 25 named storms of which eight to 13 could become hurricanes, with four to seven major hurricanes expected. Scientists also raised the alarm that record-warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic coupled with a 77% likelihood of La Niña conditions developing between August and October could lead to storms that rapidly intensify as they approach land and bring excessive rain upon landfall—an increasingly common phenomenon for which government officials, local emergency planners and residents must prepare.
In addition to storms, coastal communities may see a significant number of tidal flooding events, a trend that is expected to worsen if policymakers fail to rein in heat-trapping emissions and address the climate crisis. According to a peer-reviewed analysis by the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS), in the decades ahead as many as 360 coastal communities could face chronic inundation due to sea level rise primarily driven by climate change. Likewise, as many as 311,000 coastal homes with a collective market value of about $117.5 billion as of 2018 could be at risk of chronic flooding by midcentury.
Below is a statement by Dr. Astrid Caldas, a senior climate scientist for community resilience at UCS.
“As a climate scientist that tracks hurricane activity, I recognize that the fun-filled summer season has increasingly become a time of dread for the dangers that await. The people and places that have found themselves in the path of a tropical storm can attest to its utter and enduring devastation, which often hits communities of color and low-income communities the hardest.
“U.S. coastal communities are tired of crossing their fingers and hoping these storms of epic, record-breaking proportions veer away from their homes, dissipate, or spin out over the Atlantic. It’s imperative that local, state, and federal policymakers and emergency planners help keep communities safe by prioritizing investments to get homes, businesses, and infrastructure in frontline communities climate-ready and be prepared to ensure a quick and just recovery should disaster strike. Reining in heat-trapping emissions driving the climate crisis is also essential.”
Dr. Caldas and other UCS experts are available to speak about the following topics related to the 2024 hurricane season:
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