Ted Cruz trails Rick Perry by 9 points in a hypothetical 2018 Texas Senate primary poll
It’s been less than a month since Sen. Ted Cruz took to the floor of the Republican National Convention and refused to endorse Donald Trump, and his move appears to have done him at least some short-term damage at home. A new PPP poll finds that while 50 percent of Texas Republicans want Cruz to be their Senate nominee in 2018, 43 percent say they want someone new. Cruz leads Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and Rep. Michael McCaul 49-27 and 51-19, respectively. However, ex-Gov. Rick Perry actually beats Cruz 46-37.
The 2018 GOP primary is of course a long time away, Perry has shown no interest in actually challenging Cruz, and it’s far from guaranteed that the incumbent will even have a credible intra-party foe. And as Perry himself can tell you, polls taken this far from Election Day aren’t incredibly predictive. A February 2009 PPP poll showed Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison crushing Perry 56-31; one year later, Perry came out on top 51-30. In any case, Democrats are also unlikely to flip this Senate seat no matter what. While Cruz has a poor 39-48 approval rating, he still beats Democratic Rep. ex-San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro 48-36 in a hypothetical race. But if Cruz had to fight his way though a nasty primary, it would not be a boring contest.