British support for staying in the European Union has risen, putting the “In” campaign 15 percentage points ahead of their rivals, a new poll shows.
|||London - British support for staying in the European Union has risen, putting the “In” campaign 15 percentage points ahead of their rivals, according to an ORB telephone poll for The Daily Telegraph newspaper.
The poll of 800 people showed support for remaining in the EU stood at 55 percent, up 4 percentage points since a comparable poll last month, while the number backing Brexit, as leaving is known, was down 3 percentage points to 40 percent.
The survey helped send sterling to a 2-1/2-week high against the euro.
“Time may be running out for the “Leave” camp to make the case for Brexit as the “Remain” campaign's position is consolidating and the electorate becoming more polarised,” Lynton Crosby, the strategist who helped Prime Minister David Cameron win last year's national election, wrote in the newspaper.
But Crosby said the biggest challenge for Cameron's campaign to keep Britain in the EU was to get pro-European voters out on polling day. The ORB survey found among those who would definitely vote 51 percent backing “remain” and 45 percent supporting “leave”.
“Turnout continues to be a major issue for the Remain campaign,” Crosby said.
Opinion surveys, which failed to predict Cameron's unexpectedly decisive victory in Britain's 2015 national election, have given a contradictory picture of Britons' voting intentions ahead of the June 23, 2016 referendum.
ICM released two polls on Monday with starkly different pictures of British opinion. A telephone poll showed the “In” campaign ahead on 47 percent while an online poll showed “Out” ahead on 47 percent support.
Betting odds have consistently indicated a vote to stay in the 28-member bloc and the implied probability of an in vote rose to 73 percent on Tuesday, according to Betfair odds.
A British exit from the EU would rock the Union - already shaken by differences over migration and the future of the euro zone - by ripping away its second-largest economy, one of its top two military powers and by far its richest financial centre.
From President Barack Obama and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney to the International Monetary Fund, a host of world leaders and international organisations have cautioned British voters about the risks of leaving the bloc it joined in 1973.
Pro-Europeans, including former prime ministers Tony Blair and John Major, have warned that an exit could also trigger the break-up of the United Kingdom by prompting another Scottish independence vote if England pulled Scotland out of the EU.
Members the 'Out' campaign say such warnings are overblown and that Britain would prosper if it broke free from what they say is a doomed, German-dominated bloc that punches way below its weight beside rivals such as Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“Despite having a campaign with significantly more resource the remainers still have a long way to go to convince voters that it is in our best interests to stay,” Johnny Heald, managing director of ORB, said by email.
“So far many of the messages have been fear stories and we know from focus groups that the electorate also want some positive reasons for staying in the EU,” Heald said.
Crosby said there was a noticeable contrast between the overall population, where “remain” had a strong lead, and those likely to vote where its advantage was “steady if unspectacular”.
“If the Britain Stronger in Europe does not have a sufficiently strong grassroots network to get people to the polls, many voters could wake up to a surprise on June 24, 2016,” he wrote.
Reuters
