Abnormally warm November: what's happening with the weather in Astana

Tengrinews.kz — The first eight days of November in Astana averaged 6.4 degrees Celsius warmer than the climatic norm. Tengrinews.kz investigated the source of this warm air, whether such November thaws are becoming more frequent, and when the city can expect snow.
How much warmer than usual was it in Astana?
From November 1 to 8, the average temperature in the capital was +3.6 degrees, according to observations from the Astana meteorological station published on the "Weather and Climate" website. The long-term average for the same dates, according to Kazhydromet's State Climate Inventory, is −2.8 degrees.
The warmest day was November 6, when temperatures reached +13.5 degrees. The historical maximum for this date recorded in the inventory is +14.8 degrees, set in 2006.
Where the warmth came from
Vitaliy Salnikov, a research professor at Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, told Tengrinews.kz that in early November, warm air from Iran and the Arabian Peninsula moved into northern Kazakhstan, including Astana. According to the scientist, air currents aligned in such a way that the warmth lingered over the region, making it difficult for cold Arctic air to push south.
To determine the origin of the warm air, the researcher used atmospheric flow maps at altitudes of 5–5.5 kilometers and calculations of air mass movement.

"At these altitudes, the air flow lines are clearly visible, directed in a continuous stream from the Arabian and Iranian regions straight toward northern Kazakhstan," Salnikov explained.

Are November thaws becoming more frequent in Astana?
According to Kazhydromet, above-freezing temperatures are being observed more frequently in the capital during the first decade of November. The city's average air temperature is rising by approximately 0.3 degrees per decade, the service reported in response to a request from Tengrinews.kz.
Stable snow cover in Astana usually forms between November 10 and 12, but the timing varies significantly from year to year. Between 1996 and 2025, the earliest date was November 2, 2015, while the latest was December 14, 2008. In 2023 and 2025, lasting snow did not arrive until early December.
Based on 30 years of observations, Kazhydromet has not identified a consistent shift in these dates. Experts explained that in some years, snow arrived later due to a lack of precipitation, while in others, it was delayed by warmth even when precipitation was sufficient.
The weather outlook for Astana
According to the Kazhydromet forecast, light snow is expected in the capital on the night of November 10. Forecasters also predict fog and icy road conditions. Nighttime temperatures will range from −3 to −1 degrees, with daytime highs between −1 and +1 degree.
No precipitation is expected on November 11 and 12, though fog is forecast for the night and morning hours. Daytime temperatures on both days will range from 0 to +2 degrees. On the night of November 11, temperatures will drop to between −5 and −3 degrees, and on the night of November 12, to between −4 and −2 degrees.