5 Predictions Ahead of Natural Selection Ski 2026, The Biggest Event of the Season

One of this season’s most anticipated events, Natural Selection Ski, will go live at 4 p.m. PT/7 p.m. ET/1 a.m. CET today, April 14, 2026.

It’s the second outing of the competition that last winter, delivered in every imaginable way. We got a big Alaskan face, an all-star fantasy style roster with the likes of Parker White and Michelle Parker, and a unique head-to-head format. All those ingredients made for exciting viewing, filling a freeride niche we didn’t know we needed.

Now, it’s time to run it all back again. In the spirit of water-cooler or bar-room speculation, we’ve put our heads together, sharing some takes and predictions in advance of the big show. Maybe we’ll end up right. Maybe we’ll be totally off the mark.

Either way, we love to talk about skiing. Keep reading if you do, too.

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1. The Spoils Will Go To the Slopestylers

Ian Greenwood:

By now, you may have heard that this year, Natural Selection will look a little different.

Based on a press release sent our way, this year's competition will lean toward backcountry freestyle, with more stepped-out jumps and less Alaskan steeps. That decision was made out of necessity because the snowpack was less stable than organizers had hoped. 

We don’t, as of now, know exactly what kind of course Natural Selection pulled together. Maybe there are more cliffs and chutes than they are letting on. From everything we’ve seen and heard, though, the format will reward skiers with deep bags of tricks.

Who among the field of competitors does that benefit? Well, just about everyone, in one way or another. You’d be hard-pressed to find a more well-rounded group of skiers. 

Among the men, though, I’d tentatively wager that three skiers have the slightest edge: Colby Stevenson, Finn Bilous, and Markus Eder.

Stevenson has nine X Games medals and one Olympic silver, all in disciplines that involve lots of spinning, twisting, and airtime. Bilous and Eder, too, have been to the Olympics as freeskiers. Plus, all have proven they’re at home outside of the terrain park.

The women’s field is a slightly bigger question mark. All are incredible freeriders, but there isn’t one among the four competitors who, say, has won an Olympic slopestyle medal. That’s not to say they don’t have tricks, though. Far from it. 

Astrid Cheylus, Manon Loschi, and Hannah Epsteyn have doubles in the bag (one of Epsteyn’s is particularly insane). And Elisabeth Gerritzen clearly spent a lot of time upside down this season, leading up to Natural Selection. Admittedly, I’m having a tough time picking a freestyle favorite from their ranks. If I had to put money down, though, I’d choose Loschi, who’s been on a tear recently. It doesn’t hurt that she won Natural Selection last year.

All of the proceedings are contingent on how the judging unfolds, too. Will a double cork 1080 score higher than a stylish 720, benefitting the skiers with the most technical aerial chops? I’m not sure yet. But I’m excited to see how it all shakes out.

2. There’s Gonna Be a Triple

Ian Greenwood:

Now, for my favorite longshot prediction: someone’s going to throw a triple, probably a triple backflip. That’s based almost entirely on one clip Natural Selection shared from the competition, showing Finn Bilous chucking a huge double cork. 

As far as I can tell, the jump he hit, a steep wind lip, is absolutely begging for a triple backflip. I’d feel more confident in this prediction if Parker White were on hand, but the Natural Selection format makes me think it’ll happen regardless.

The skiers get multiple runs, leaving the door open for some big gambles. And I think a triple is the kind of gamble the athletes know the crowd would like to see.

The next part of this prediction: Tanner Hall (and maybe others) will be the one to throw the triple backflip. Why? I don’t know. It just feels right.

3. Jonah Williams Is a Dark Horse To Win

Izzy Lidsky:

Jonah Williams earned his wildcard spot at the NST Super Sessions competition that went down at Palisades Tahoe this year.

Williams went up against talented freeriders to earn his spot in Alaska alongside competitors from last year like Markus Eder, Colby Stevenson, and Craig “Weazy” Murray. Karl Fostvedt and Tanner Hall, who are new to NST, are GOAT’ed, as well. It's a stacked field.

Admittedly, this prediction that Williams is going to come out of the gate and do some crazy sh*t no one expects might be from a place of bias. At Super Sessions, Williams competed against Palisades local Connery Lundin, Whitefish-bred big mountain aficionado Parkin Costain, and X Games medalist Teal Harle.

There is no doubt that Williams is an incredibly talented skier and super fun to watch (really, I watched Seeing Flowers like five times), but having witnessed Parkin Costain’s chops in the mountains in person a handful of times, my money was on him for the spot going into Super Sessions.

However, as I watched Williams earn his spot to Alaska on the replay, I realized I’d probably written him off too quickly in my initial prediction and watched Seeing Flowers again, just to check myself.

With a lineup as stacked as the final roster for NST, I don’t think I can safely put money on anyone, but I will bet that Williams is going to take a pair of Rossignol Sender Free 118s and blow our minds.

Even if he doesn’t win, I would put money on the fact that we’ll be saying ‘remember when Jonah Williams [insert some wild thing] at NST Ski 2026?'

4. The Adjusted Format Will Either Inspire More Events or Anger Fans

Izzy Lidsky:

In skiing, there’s a pretty clear distinction between freestyle and freeride, and that distinction is weird snow conditions.

In other words, just because you can land a trick on a park jump doesn’t mean you can land it in the backcountry, potentially in bad snow. The skiers who have gained the most recognition are those who have truly transcended, like Sammy Carlson and many NST competitors. 

However, as Ian said, there’s no doubt that some NST competitors' skills are skewed towards one discipline. For example, Colby Stevenson (who no doubt has backcountry skills) won a silver medal at the X Games this year. In contrast, someone like Elisabeth Gerritzen is more known for the powerful, technical, and stylish skiing she’s done on the Freeride World Tour.

We’re all just creatures of our experiences right? Hear me out. What I’ve seen in the past is that eventually all freeride-hybrid competitions turn into spin-to-win fests, and the skiers who are more versed in slope competitions come out on top. That is, until everyone revolts and then things get super weird, which is, IMO, the peak of freeride.

However, without having actually seen the competition (no, we don’t know anything either), all I can do is guess. While part of me worries that this year's competition will turn out to be slopestyle/freeride, the other half hopes that adding jumps to the Plan C venue will pave the way for something so sick that no one could have dreamt it up.

It’s truly hard tellin’, not knowin’ which might make this prediction about as non-committal as your average 23-year-old ski town bro.

But if I had to guess, I’d say it’s either going to come out with half the field feeling robbed, or it will pave the way for a whole new style of competition that forces skiers to have a vast technical skill set in big terrain and a deep bag of slope tricks.

5. This Year's Comp Will Reinforce (Again) Just How Sick Head-to-Head Bracket Competitions Are

Izzy Lidsky:

Welcome to my new column at POWDER called ‘I Love Head-to-Head Bracket Competitions and Can’t Shut Up About Them.’

I kid, no one wants to read that. However, the 2025 edition of NST Ski certainly planted the seed in my mind that bracket-style ski competitions are super cool and more fun to watch than a traditional points-scored format.

I was truly indoctrinated by the head-to-head format at the Snow League in Switzerland, where I discovered how much more strategy and intentionality it can require of athletes, particularly in a more standardized setting like a halfpipe.

The format truly makes for a good show for viewers, and as a bystander, it seems to create a fun environment for the athletes.

So, this prediction isn’t as much of a prediction as it is a warning. If this slopestyle-leaning pivot with a head-to-head format is as sick as I think it’s about to be, I’m never gonna shut up about it.

Maybe spraying about two of these in a season on POWDER will convince every competition to change their format… mwahahahah *evil hand gestures*.

How To Watch Natural Selection Ski Alaska 2026

Watch the broadcast, right here on powder.com. Broadcast begins at 4 p.m. PT/7 p.m. ET/1 a.m. CET on April 14, 2026.