A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for those users. These bets were made even as President Donald Trump’s threats of devastating attacks on Iran appeared to make an imminent deal unlikely. Analysis of blockchain data shows at least 50 wallets placed substantial “Yes” bets before Trump announced a two-week ceasefire on social media. Polymarket labeled the ceasefire betting event as “disputed” due to ongoing tensions, which means some payouts are on hold. This pattern of strategic bets has raised questions about insider trading.
