An intelligence assessment completed shortly before the U.S. and Israel launched a war in Iran determined that military intervention is unlikely to result in regime change. The internal analysis concluded that neither airstrikes nor a more prolonged military campaign would likely dislodge the government, even if the current leadership was killed. This is according to two people familiar with the finding who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the classified report. The intelligence assessment concluded that Iran’s establishment would attempt to preserve continuity of power if Ayatollah Ali Khamenei were killed, as he was in the war’s opening salvo. Events of recent days lend credence to the assessment after Iran’s leading clerics chose Khamenei's son to succeed his father.
