Pundits in International Affairs comment that after one year of military exhaustion, Israel’s Operation Iron Swords has made some twisted dynamics in the Middle East as an unmitigated disaster in which both Israel and its foes are equally wounded.
For Hamas, the death of its leaders one after another caused a disastrous effect as it may take years for them to revive their organizational apparatus. Israeli’s jubilation over crushing the key leaders in both Hamas and Hezbollah is not long-lasting as their escalation with Iran is symbolic of a new regional conflict, which can undermine the international order. The contention often heard from the commenters in the global affairs is that Israel lacks the long term strategic ability of transforming its massive military victories into a durable political one as Tel Aviv is losing its international partners due to violating the proportionality in the military operations in Gaza and Lebanon .
From a vantage point of view, all these arguments are good enough as ingredients for a scholarly soup as the realist position in the war in the Middle East has taken strides in favour of Israel by the strategic victories that the IDF acquired. Iranian entry into the theatre of the Middle East has been sometimes depicted as a turning point, but Tehran and its proxies show less advancement over the Israeli operations in Lebanon indicating the military superiority of the latter. The only significant threat posed by Iran towards Israel lies in deploying its proxies outside the centre of gravity against the Israeli targets.
For example, the recent alleged threat reported in Sri Lanka on Israeli tourists visiting the island’s East Coast referred to Iranian agents.One might speculate if Israel has achieved its strategic ambitions from Operation Iron Swords, how would Tel Aviv turn them into a political reality, which would consolidate Israel’s position in the Middle East? In order to address such a question, it is essential to understand whether Israel accomplished what it yearned for after the 7th of October. Here are Israel’s declared strategic and political goals in Operation Iron Swords:
A much more ambitious overarching goal that Israel desires to achieve is to form a new regional security reality bolstering the formidable position of Israel. In achieving this target, Israel aims to dismantle the Iranian proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah that loom before the Israeli boarder causing a severe existential threat and it may not be an exaggeration to contend that Iran will be much weaker without the consistency of these two forces. Country’s dwindling economy which has been stagnated for years is another additional burden for Tehran which reduces its ability to sustain in a long term war against Israel .
As American strategic guru Edward Luttwak cleverly argued Iran’s export revenue which earned nearly 80% from oil has been spent on imported components and supplies consumed by the domestic Revolutionary Guards, with its 125,000 troops and a naval force. This includes the imports of Chinese and North Korean missile and rocket components, as well as the foreign-currency costs of the entire nuclear programme which proceeds at a very large scale. The oil export process is mainly located in the Khark island within 1500 km proximity of Israeli airbase.
In the UN general assembly, Netanyahu hinted that Israeli’s long arms can extend to Iran’s oil resources, which can certainly collapse Iran’s wounded economy. All in all, from the Iranian front a threat posing against Israel is not much inimical as Israel’s military machinery stands stronger as a lethal threat to Tehran. The challenges loom before Israel in Gaza seem to be more complex regardless of Israel’s military victories over Hamas, in which the latter has been devastated both logistically and numerically. Israel’s dilemma with Gaza is the fact that if it decides to distribute humanitarian aid among Gazans, Israel will become the de facto force ruling Gaza which Tel Aviv does not want. But, this can lead to accelerating the authority of Hamas again even after its eclipse. The history of Hamas since its inception has shown that it contains the ability to relish major blows as the Hamas ideology that its founders nourished remains unaffected.
Yet on the strategic front the achievements that Israel earned from its operation Iron Swords elevate Tel Aviv’s status into a powerful position which they did not hold in the region before the 7th of October. Mainly its ability of freeing itself from the threat paranoia from Hezbollah in Lebanon is a deterring factor that fortifies Israel. Overall, Israel seems to have tighten its grip over Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran with the aim of securing its position in a long game, which may alter the security architecture of the Middle at unprecedented level.
The other paramount factor adding one more brick to Israel is Trump’s return to the White House for his second term, which has already made many right-wing Israelis jubilant. Considering how the Trump administration supported Israel between 2017 to 2020, it appears to be reasonable to see these latest changes in Washington as catalyst factors changing the chain of events in the Middle East. From the act of moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem to the successful completion of the Abraham Accords in 2020, Trump’s actions appeased Tel Aviv.
In return, Israel backed out of the plot to assassinate Iranian General Soleimani in January 2020, which frustrated Trump and even became a point of discussion during the presidential election. Despite the troubling memory of Israel’s broken promise, Trump’s second term is likely to be favorable to Tel Aviv, as he would oppose bringing the Palestinian Authority to Gaza or moving earnestly toward a two-state solution.
With the military victories earned by IDF for past few months, Israel can begin a fresh start when Trump enters the White House on the 20th of January. It can also be presumed that Trump may support Israel to launch pre-emptive strikes on Iran nuclear reactors as an emulation of what Israel achieved against Iraq in 1981, which completely wiped out Saddam Hussain’s nuclear ambition.
