LGBTQ+ voters in these 4 states could swing the 2024 presidential election

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Dorian Rhea Debussy, The Ohio State University

(THE CONVERSATION) Victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election may come down to LGBTQ+ voters.

Polling data shows that Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are running in a near-dead heat in four states – Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. And as a scholar of LGBTQ+ politics, I suspect that LGBTQ+ voters could play an outsize role in these states and the race.

So, how might LGBTQ+ voters swing these states?

LGBTQ+ voting behavior, explained

In the most comprehensive political survey of LGBTQ+ Americans ever conducted, the Pew Research Center found in 2013 that the vast majority of respondents – 85% – “always” or “nearly always” voted, compared with roughly a third of the general population. Turnout in the most recent presidential election validated that finding. A 2020 post-election survey by the advocacy group GLAAD found that 81% of LGBTQ+ voters cast a...