Tehran is increasingly focused on the political and economic developments in the South Caucasus, making all-out efforts to position itself as a key player in the ongoing regional realignment. Despite facing tough international sanctions and external challenges, Iran's influence in the region remains significantly weaker than Russia and Türkiye. Nevertheless, Tehran is actively working to strengthen its foothold, particularly by aligning with Armenia to counterbalance the Turkish-Azerbaijani alliance.
Iran's partnership with Armenia serves multiple purposes. Primarily, it aims to curb the expanding influence of Türkiye and Azerbaijan in the region, while also potentially giving Tehran access to Black Sea ports - a strategic advantage in bypassing sanctions against its energy and banking sectors. The alliance with Armenia also provides Iran with a tool to resist the regional integration initiatives led by its rivals, particularly the Zangazur Corridor, which Tehran views as a direct challenge to its geopolitical interests.
The Zangezur Corridor, a project spearheaded by Azerbaijan after its victory in the 2020 Karabakh War, has emerged as a major source of tension in the region. Supported by Türkiye, this corridor is envisioned as a vital transit route connecting Azerbaijan with its exclave, Nakhchivan, and further linking Türkiye to Central Asia. Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev has emphasized that the project aligns with his country's national and historical interests, asserting that it will proceed regardless of Armenia's opposition.
However, Armenia views the project as a threat to its sovereignty. Under the terms of the 2020 trilateral ceasefire agreement, the corridor would pass through Armenian territory without Armenian control, instead being overseen by Russian security forces. Armenia's government fears that this arrangement would undermine its territorial integrity and has pushed for guarantees that it will eventually assume control over the corridor. This opposition has delayed progress, prompting calls from Baku for regional pressure on Armenia to move forward with the project.
Tehran has reacted strongly against the possible opening of the Zengazur Corridor, citing concerns over regional stability and its own strategic interests. Iranian officials have argued that the project is part of a broader effort by Türkiye and Azerbaijan to diminish Iran's influence in the South Caucasus. Tehran fears that the corridor would cut off its access to Armenia, disrupting trade routes and weakening its geopolitical standing.
However, this concern is not grounded in historical facts. The proposed route of the Zangezur Corridor mirrors an existing Soviet-era railway line that ran through the same territory without any negative impact on Iran's connections with Armenia. Despite this, Iranian officials continue to voice opposition, suggesting that the corridor is a geopolitical maneuver aimed at sidelining Iran in favor of Turkish and Azerbaijani interests.
Moscow's position on the Zangezur Corridor has added further complexity to the situation. Russia, which maintains a military presence in Armenia and controls key sectors of its economy, stands to benefit from the corridor's opening as it would create a more stable land route for Russian goods, especially military supplies, to Armenia. Political analysts argue that the corridor could help Russia reduce its dependence on Iranian routes, especially after the deterioration of relations with Georgia in 2008.
Despite this, Iran has been vocal in its criticism of Moscow's support for the project. Iranian media outlets have condemned Russia's backing of the Zangezur Corridor, viewing it as an alignment with NATO interests via Türkiye's involvement. Iran fears that the corridor will facilitate Western -particularly NATO - influence in the region, allowing Türkiye to strengthen its ties with Central Asia and potentially expand NATO's presence. This perception has led Tehran to intensify its diplomatic efforts to prevent the corridor's completion.
Beyond the Zangezur Corridor, Iran's broader geopolitical anxieties are linked to the shifting balance of power in the region. Iran sees Türkiye as a growing threat, not only due to its military strength but also because of its close ties with NATO. The intensification of Türkiye's political, economic, and military partnership with Azerbaijan is viewed by Tehran as a move that could marginalize Iran's role in regional affairs.
Iranian officials, including deceased Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian, have publicly declared that any attempt to alter the borders in the South Caucasus is a "red line" for Tehran. In October 2020, Tehran even opened a consulate in the Armenian city of Kapan to signal its commitment to defending its interests along the Armenian border. The move was a clear message to both Baku and Ankara that Iran will not tolerate any changes that threaten its position.
The opening of the Zangezur Corridor is seen as a pivotal development that could reshape the political and economic landscape of the South Caucasus. For Azerbaijan, it offers the opportunity to reestablish direct land access to Nakhchivan, significantly boosting its regional influence. For Türkiye, the corridor represents a chance to strengthen its position as a major transit hub, while also reducing its dependence on Iranian routes for trade.
For Iran, however, the corridor is a symbol of its diminishing influence. Tehran's resistance to the project reflects its broader fears of being sidelined in the region, as Azerbaijan and Türkiye solidify their partnership with the backing of Russia. Iran's opposition may continue to be a roadblock to the project's completion, but its ability to prevent the corridor's opening is limited, given the strong support it enjoys from key regional powers.
The ongoing dispute over the Zangezur Corridor underscores the complex web of geopolitical rivalries in the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan, Türkiye, and Russia all stand to gain from the corridor's opening, while Iran and Armenia remain deeply concerned about its potential consequences.
Tehran's vocal opposition, rooted in both historical misconceptions and contemporary geopolitical concerns, reflects its anxiety over the shifting balance of power in the region. Whether through diplomatic negotiations or regional pressure, the outcome of this dispute will have far-reaching implications for the future of the South Caucasus.
