Pakistan-US relations have evolved significantly. Despite concerns by US lawmakers over the alleged rigging in Pakistani elections in February 2024, the Biden administration has been consistent in engaging the new Pakistani government. With a new government in Pakistan and the US gearing up for its elections this year, both countries have an opportunity to transform the bilateral relationship in light of changed priorities under great power competition.
US-Pakistan relations have historically been shaped by security concerns, particularly regarding Afghanistan and counter-terrorism efforts. The US has provided military aid to Pakistan and the two countries have partnered in counterterrorism operations in the region. However, the US priorities shifted towards countering China in the Asia-Pacific region following its hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan, which also influenced its South Asia policy. The US has been arming and supporting India as a counter-weight to China, leaving an impression that Pakistan remains on the brink of American priorities. However, despite America’s changed priorities, the recent trends suggest that Pakistan remains an essential component of America’s South Asia policy.
The US National Security Strategy - 2022 (NSS) outlines the return of great power competition and the need for Washington to outmaneuver China as a top priority. In pursuit of this goal, the United States needs to strengthen its relationship with Pakistan and maintain strong alliances in the Asia-Pacific region. The US officials realize this importance. Donald Lu, Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia, in his latest briefing to the US Congress described Pakistan-US relations at an “inflection point,” saying that “China is past, US investment is Pakistan’s future.” Lu’s optimism speaks volumes about Washington’s commitment to maintaining strong ties with Islamabad. Pakistan continues to remain America’s ‘non-NATO ally’ which signifies its importance as America’s security partner in the region.
Over the past few years, the relationship has faced turbulence, particularly as the US aligns more closely with India to counter China.
It is important to note that while previously security-centric, the US-Pakistan relations have taken a shift towards cooperation in non-security areas. They include education, healthcare, science and technology, climate change, and agriculture. Apart from this, the US has been a major provider of aid in times of crisis, such as the catastrophic floods in 2022. The US-Pakistan Green Alliance Framework is pioneering efforts to improve climate-smart agriculture and promote sustainable economic growth. The US is Pakistan’s largest export market, with bilateral trade standing at approximately $12 Billion. Efforts to expand this relationship through the US-Pakistan Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) are essential. There is potential for growth in sectors such as renewable energy, digital trade, and agriculture.
Pakistan’s reliance on US military aid has almost diminished, as China is currently the top supplier of military hardware to Pakistan. Pakistan’s strategic alignment with China is also necessary, especially for countering the perceived threat from India and addressing core issues like Kashmir. Thus, Pakistan’s foreign policy aims to leverage both relationships, enhancing its strategic position while promoting economic growth and stability.
The intensifying US-China rivalry places Pakistan in a complex position. While Pakistan enjoys strong ties with China through China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), it also seeks to maintain a balanced relationship with the US to avoid over-reliance on any single power. Pakistan needs both China and the US for different reasons. China’s investments are vital for infrastructure and economic development, while the US remains crucial for trade, financial aid, and broader geopolitical considerations. Balancing these relationships is essential for Pakistan to navigate its economic and security challenges effectively.
The future of Pakistan-US relations will likely be characterized by a pragmatic approach that emphasizes economic cooperation, addresses mutual security concerns, and navigates the broader geopolitical landscape in South Asia. Both nations have the opportunity to build a more comprehensive and mutually beneficial relationship by focusing on non-traditional areas of cooperation while maintaining a robust security partnership. Security remains a crucial aspect of the relations, especially about the terrorist threats posed by groups including Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in Afghanistan. Both countries need to put pressure on the Taliban regime in Afghanistan to crack down on these threats.
The 2024 US Presidential elections are pivotal for shaping the next chapter in US-Pakistan relations. While core areas of policy such as security cooperation are expected to remain consistent, the evolving geopolitical landscape and internal political dynamics in both countries will significantly influence this bilateral relationship.
