By Iman Muttaqin Yusof
UMNO, a once dominant force in Malaysian politics that regained power by acquiescing to 18 other parties in Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s coalition, said Wednesday it would contest the next election under its own symbol, after an upset by-election victory renewed its confidence.
But Malaysians need not fear the return of political instability, in a potential scenario where neither the ethnic Malay-centric UMNO and Bersatu-led coalition nor Anwar’s secular Pakatan Harapan win a majority, analysts said, because UMNO may have no viable option but to be in an alliance for the next few years.
The United Malays National Organization itself appeared to know this as party President Ahmad Zahid Hamidi left a door open when he announced to reporters that he and his party members had decided they would contest in the 2027 election under the symbol of Barisan Nasional, a coalition anchored by UMNO.
“In less than three years, we will face the next general election. I agree with the party’s leadership and grassroots that in the upcoming election, we should use the Barisan Nasional symbol,” Zahid told reporters.
“However, we are open to collaborating with the 18 other political parties within the unity government to avoid overlaps and work together to secure voter support,” he said after a closed-door session with other party leaders in Kuala Lumpur during the annual UMNO general assembly.
The four-day assembly, which started Wednesday, has drawn more than 6,000 grassroots supporters as well as top leadership. It is expected to showcase a more assertive UMNO after its victory in the Nenggiri by-election on Aug. 17, Zahid said.
The party must keep up the momentum of this win to regain its standing among the Malay community, he said. UMNO was once touted as the sole representative of the economically weak ethnic majority’s interests.
UMNO won the Malay-majority Nenggiri by-election in the state of Kelantan by 3,352 votes, upsetting the incumbent from the Perikatan Nasional coalition, which includes Bersatu and the conservative Parti Islam Malaysia (PAS).
Muhyiddin Yassin, a recent former prime minister, leads the Bersatu party, which has pitched itself as an alternative to UMNO in safeguarding the interests of the ethnic Malay majority. Bersatu anchors the Perikatan Nasional coalition
Victory was sweet because in a PAS-dominated state, UMNO had always held Nenggiri but lost the seat in the August 2023 state election.
By-elections, which are held when a seat falls vacant mid-term due to a lawmaker’s death or for another reason, tend to be seen as a barometer for the popularity of the government or the opposition, depending on which side the victor is from.
“We want UMNO leadership at all levels to learn from and take pride in our victory in Nenggiri, where we reclaimed a seat we had previously lost,” Zahid said.
“This victory clearly disproves any claims that UMNO is no longer relevant or that it has been rejected by the Malay community. It has given new momentum to UMNO’s struggle at all levels.”
UMNO had ruled Malaysia since independence in 1957 until 2018, when it was swept from power for the first time via the ballot box.
It fared even worse in the next general election in 2022, but agreed to be part of a “unity government” with the secular Pakatan Harapan alliance in a government led by Anwar, as the then-king had proposed.
In the deal, Zahid got to be deputy prime minister to Prime Minister Anwar. The two once belonged to fiercely opposing sides.
The top alliance in the federal coalition government is Anwar’s Pakatan, with 81 parliamentary seats. UMNO-led Barisan has 30 seats in the parliament.
Despite this imbalance, not only did Zahid get to be deputy PM, seven UMNO members were appointed ministers and six were named deputy ministers.
And yet, the partnership has been fraught with tension, analysts say, because of UMNO’s historical rivalry with a Pakatan constituent, the Democratic Action Party (DAP). The Chinese-led DAP and the ethnic Malay-centered UMNO are at distinct odds over the vastly different interests they perceive to serve.
In this scenario, UMNO’s win in Nenggiri is seen as pivotal to its bid to regain lost ground, political analyst Azmi Hassan told BenarNews.
“Unlike last year, when cooperation with other parties was still relatively new, UMNO has shown that it can and is willing to go solo without Pakatan Harapan, especially after the Nenggiri results,” Azmi of the Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research said.
UMNO-led Barisan was the sole campaigner in the lead up to the by-election, as Anwar and DAP members chose not to get involved.
One senior UMNO leader, Md. Puad Zarkashi, was less circumspect than Zahid, dismissing the idea that UMNO would contest solo in the next national election, although he acknowledged that enthusiasm was tremendous at the general assembly.
“UMNO’s spirit is exceptionally high. The victory in Nenggiri has boosted members’ confidence that the party can regain the support of the people and the Malay community,” he told BenarNews.
He said the issue of UMNO going solo did not explicitly arise during the meeting with the leaders and grassroots.
“It’s far too early to discuss that. UMNO’s priority is ensuring that its ministers can deliver results, even while sharing power and while not being the dominant force in the current government,” said the UMNO Supreme Council member.
Analyst Azmi Hassan said that the rank-and-file of UMNO, always uncomfortable with the Chinese-focused DAP, would push to contest without an alliance in the next election.
“The [UMNO general assembly] discussion will likely reflect grassroots calls for UMNO to go solo in the next general election, though cooperation with [Anwar's] Pakatan remains open to negotiation,” Azmi said.
“Perikatan Nasional, on the other hand, faces challenges, particularly with their chairman, Muhyiddin … This issue is likely to be leveraged … particularly concerning who is best positioned to address Islam andMalayissues.”
But James Chin, a professor of Asian Studies at the University of Tasmania, noted that UMNO’s options are limited, because joining forces with the Perikatan coalition would likely lead to its political extinction.
“It’s obvious UMNO cannot go over to Perikatan Nasional’s side because Bersatu was set up with the explicit aim to replace UMNO as the nationalistic Malay party,” Chin told BenarNews.
“If they go to the other side, they would just be killed off by Bersatu. The best chance they have is [to ally] with Anwar.”
Another analyst, Syaza Shukri of the International Islamic University Malaysia, believes UMNO’s alliance with Pakatan is temporary although how long temporary means is open to interpretation.
“UMNO is of course looking forward to the day they can regain their dominance and for Barisan not needing to work with others,” Syaza, who teaches political science, told BenarNews.
“But is this possible? I don’t see it in the next election.”
