The United States Department of Defense (DOD) has unveiled modernization plan for its aerial assets in Japan where the US will modernize its ageing fleet. The modernization plan is expected to complete in the next few years with the total investment of $10 billion. The modernization plan will enhance “U.S-Japan Alliance, regional deterrence, and strengthen peace and stability” in the region. While the Pentagon announcement did not explicitly mention Beijing, the announcement of deployment and modernization marks the major advancement in U.S air power in Japan.
Japan has a territorial dispute with China over what it calls the Senkaku Islands and according to Chinese Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea.
The United States will upgrade the F-15 C/D with F-15 EX at Kadena air base and 48 F35A with 36 F-16s deployed at Misawa Air Base. Similarly, At Marine Corps Air Station (MCAS) Iwakuni the F-35B will be modified to support force design modernization implementation.
Although not a stealth fighter but F-15EX has next-gen survivability. It’s the upgraded version and the most advanced fighter of the F-15 family with the ability to carry 12 advanced medium range AAM. It has new electronic warfare (EW) system, modern radars and software capabilities. Its open mission system (OMS) allows it to operate independently when isolated and to connect it to global cloud system when conditions allowed. Due to its active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar it has an extended range and improved multi-target track and precision engagement capabilities. Similarly, F-35A low observable stealth platform that could operate forward and relay data back to F-15EX which with its large carrying capacity and extended range could target the enemy aircraft.
This latest announcement aims to counterbalance China in the Asia-Pacific but is a little late for it to effect the US’s counterpart as China is relatively more prepared than the U.S in the East and South China Sea.
Recently, US lawmakers raised the alarms of potential vulnerability of U.S force in the Pacific if war breaks out against China. The lawmakers cited recent wargames analysis where a 90% of US’s fighters are lost on the ground in a potential conflict. The lawmakers cautioned that China possess significant amount of weaponry to overwhelm air defense protecting US bases in the pacific.
“With its current strike capabilities, China can attack all US bases in the region, targeting U.S. service members from Okinawa to those on US territories of Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI).”
The letter further said:
“While “active defenses” such as air and missile defense systems are an important part of base and force protection, their high cost and limited numbers mean the U.S. will not be able to deploy enough of them to fully protect our bases.”
The letter suggested hardened shelter for the aircrafts as “passive defenses” and to protect it from missile barrages. The letter also recommended underground bunkers, strategic dispersal of forces within and across bases, redundant logistical facilities, and rapid runway repair capabilities.
At this moment, it is difficult to say that China will be deterred with the recently announced modernization plan which will take several years to complete as China has the largest Army and Navy in the world and according to Admiral John Aquilino, commander of US Indo-Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM) “China soon will have the world’s largest air force.” Department of Defense (DOD) 2023 China military power report says that combined force of People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLA-AF) and People’s Liberation Army Navy Aviation (PLA-N Aviation) is the largest aviation force in the Indo-Pacific with some 3150 aircrafts. Over 2400 of them are combat aircrafts like fighters, bombers and attack aircrafts.
Additionally, two of the three US Air Force bases changed their commanders ahead of modernization plan. Lt. Gen. Ricky N. Rupp, commander of United States Forces Japan and Fifth Air Force called the adversary conducts “increasingly aggressive.” He further said that Russia along with China conducts joint naval and bomber patrols in the Pacific. The Russian Navy and the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy conducted their annual joint drills in the pacific to “maintain peace and stability in Asia-Pacific region.” The current patrol although scaled down from last year was still not taken lightly by the US in Japan.
The decision to modernize came late, as China has already established a robust presence in the Pacific. They are equipped with several hundred of the latest J-20 aircraft, along with a significant number of other fighters and bombers, capable of countering threats from multiple directions. Additionally, their active naval presence strengthens their strategic position.
Given that the U.S. modernization plan will take several years to complete, China will have ample time to reassess and adjust their strategies if needed. While this modernization effort will undoubtedly enhance U.S. capabilities, it is unlikely to compel China to reconsider their plans in the Asia-Pacific region.
