While much attention is given to the nuclear tensions between the US and Russia, or the US and China, the ongoing conflict between nuclear-armed neighbours India and Pakistan is equally alarming. There are now signs that Pakistan is equipping its JF-17 fighter jets with nuclear-capable cruise missiles. These JF-17s are set to replace the older French-made Mirage jets, previously used by Pakistan for nuclear strike missions, according to the Federation of American Scientists as reported by Business Insider.
Federation of American Scientists (FAS) analyst Eliana Johns notes that these developments, along with rising tensions in the region, have sparked concerns about a growing arms race and the increased risk of conflict escalation between India and Pakistan. This raises concerns as India is also expanding and enhancing its nuclear arsenal.
Given Pakistan’s secretive nature regarding its nuclear programme, the evidence suggesting that JF-17 jets are armed with nuclear weapons is mostly indirect. Currently, Pakistan’s ageing Mirage V aircraft from the 1960s are equipped with nuclear bombs, while the Mirage III has been tested with the Ra’ad cruise missile, which can carry either nuclear or conventional warheads. A recent photo even showed a JF-17 in flight carrying what looks like a Ra’ad missile.
The Pakistani Air Force has more than 130 JF-17 Thunder jets, a collaborative effort between Pakistan and China designed to create a fighter comparable to the US F-16 (of which Pakistan operates 75). Known as the FC-1 Xiaolong (‘Fierce Dragon’) in China, the JF-17 first took to the skies in 2003.
There was long-standing speculation about the JF-17 being equipped with Ra’ad missiles. The speculation was recently confirmed. At last year’s ‘Pakistan Day’ parade rehearsals that were later cancelled a photograph surfaced, showing a JF-17 Thunder Block II carrying what seemed to be a Ra’ad air-launched cruise missile (ALCM), according to the FAS. This was the first time such a setup was publicly seen.
The FAS managed to obtain the original image and compared the Ra’ad on the JF-17 to previous images. One key question was which version of the Ra’ad was mounted on the JF-17. The Ra’ad I, also known as the Hatf-8, is a subsonic missile with a range of over 200 miles (approximately 320 km), similar to Europe’s Storm Shadow, according to the CSIS Missile Threat defence site. The newer Ra’ad II, which is 4.85 metres long, supposedly has a range of nearly 400 miles (approx 643 Kms). Additionally, Pakistan is working on the Taimoor, an anti-ship variant of the Ra’ad.
FAS used Photoshop to analyse the images. It found that the JF-17 was equipped with the older Ra’ad I missile. If this is accurate, it means that many targets in western and northern India would be within the range of these nuclear or conventional cruise missiles. According to Business Insider quoting Johns, Pakistan has several air bases close to India’s border. Aircraft can quickly take off and fly to dispersal bases within Pakistan, getting closer to potential targets in India at a range of 350-600 kilometres if necessary.
There is still much uncertainty about the exact capabilities of the Ra’ad missile. For instance, how Pakistan nearly double the range of the Ra’ad from an estimated 350 kilometres to 550 kilometres, and then to 600 kilometres for the latest version, without increasing the missile’s size substantially to accommodate more fuel? The answer may lie in the Ra’ad-II’s efficient engine design that uses lighter materials or a reduced payload, according to FAS.
Currently, Pakistan’s air-launched cruise missile capabilities are unclear. The FAS noted that it was uncertain if the Ra’ad missile systems had been deployed yet, but it might just be a matter of time. Once these missiles are in use, it will be interesting to see if Pakistan keeps its aircraft equipped with nuclear gravity bombs that are dropped directly over targets by aircraft, or shifts entirely to using stand-off cruise missiles that are launched from a distance, allowing aircraft to stay out of enemy defenses. Both deliver nuclear warheads through different methods.
Johns believes China is unlikely to prevent Pakistan from adapting the JF-17, a joint project between the two nations, for nuclear strike missions. China and Pakistan have had a longstanding economic and technical partnership, and it is speculated that China provided Pakistan with the blueprint for its first nuclear weapon.
Pakistan primarily relies on ballistic missiles as the delivery system for its estimated 170 nuclear weapons, including at least six types of road-mobile rockets. However, increasing the range of Pakistan’s aerial nuclear capabilities could heighten the risk of nuclear conflict. Both Pakistan and India are developing multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle (MIRV) versions of their ballistic missiles. Pakistan is also working on short-range, dual-use ballistic missiles.
As of January 2024, India possessed a total of 172 nuclear warheads, up from 164 in 2023. These nuclear weapons are thought to be plutonium-based and produced at the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC). Meanwhile, Pakistan has 170 nuclear warheads as of 2024, which are designed using highly enriched uranium (HEU).
On February 16, 2020, Pakistan successfully tested a new version of its Ra’ad II nuclear-capable air-launched cruise missile. This was announced by the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), the media branch of the Pak military.
The Ra’ad series (also known as Hatf VIII) in Pakistan is similar to several South African missile projects, such as the MUPSOW cruise missile and the Torgos long-range guided weapon. Pakistan and South Africa have previously collaborated on advanced weapon development. The original 350-kilometre range version of the Ra’ad cruise missile was first tested by the Pakistan Air Force in 2007. The development of the latest Ra’ad II variant could be partly a response to India’s efforts to modernize its air defence systems.
While exact figures are not available, it is estimated that India can deliver around 48 nuclear warheads using its older Mirage 2000H/I and Jaguar IS/IB aircraft, as well as possibly the French-made Rafale. The Mirage 2000H/I and Jaguar IS/IB, introduced in the early-1980s, have ranges of 1,850 kilometres and 1,600 kilometres, respectively. India is already working on modernizing its ageing fleet and may be looking to acquire a modern fighter-bomber to take over the air-based nuclear strike role in future. The nuclear-capable Rafale could potentially be equipped with Indian nuclear weapons and serve as a replacement for older aircraft.
