The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies have faced significant electoral losses in the northeastern states during the 2024 parliamentary elections, primarily due to the prolonged ethnic conflict in Manipur. The crisis, characterized by violence between the Kuki-Zo and Meitei communities, has exposed the BJP's inability to manage communal tensions and has severely impacted its political standing in the region.
Manipur has endured over a year of ethnic violence, with the minority Kuki-Zo community suffering greatly at the hands of some majority Meiteis. The state government, dominated by the Meitei community, has been criticized for its apathy towards the plight of the Kuki-Zo people. Unauthorized occupation of Kuki-Zo buildings in Imphal, economic blockades, extortion, and free movement of radical elements have become the norm, leading to widespread lawlessness and despair. The conflict has left the ten Kuki-Zo MLAs and their tribes unable to return to Imphal, further deepening the divide. The BJP's lack of decisive action to resolve the crisis has been perceived as an attempt to browbeat the Kuki-Zo community into submission, resulting in widespread disillusionment.
The ethnic violence in Manipur has had a profound impact on the BJP's fortunes in the northeastern states of Mizoram, Nagaland, Meghalaya, and Manipur. The BJP and its allies lost seats to the Congress and regional parties, who leveraged the BJP's perceived failure to address the crisis during their election campaigns. The conflict provided a platform for the opposition to portray the BJP as an anti-minority party. The Union government's decision to scrap the Free Movement Regime (FMR) with Myanmar and erect a border fence further alienated the tribal communities in Nagaland, Manipur, and Mizoram. This move, recommended by the Manipur chief minister, was seen as prioritizing the Meitei community's interests over those of the minority tribes.
Mizoram and Manipur have adopted markedly different approaches to handling refugees from Myanmar. Mizoram, which shelters over 40,000 refugees, has managed the situation by confining them to camps at the border and providing humanitarian assistance. Conversely, the Manipur government turned refugees back to Myanmar, forcing them to enter the state through unfenced areas and establish unauthorized settlements. This lack of humanitarian assistance compelled the refugees to build their own shelters and engage in subsistence farming, potentially including illicit activities like poppy cultivation. Manipur's approach has not only failed to address the refugee crisis but has also contributed to a broader state of lawlessness. Radical elements freely parade the streets of Imphal in police and armed forces uniforms, and extortion has become rampant. The state government's inaction has fueled suspicions of tacit support for these radical elements, further eroding public trust.
The BJP's handling of the Manipur conflict has led to significant electoral losses. The Meitei community, disillusioned by lawlessness and economic hardships, turned against the BJP. The Kuki-Zo community, feeling abandoned by the BJP and their own representatives, overwhelmingly supported the Congress in the Outer Manipur constituency. The Naga People's Front (NPF), allied with the BJP, also faced backlash due to its association with the party and proximity to the NSCN, a group detested by the Kuki-Zo. The chief minister of Assam has acknowledged the impact of the Manipur conflict on the BJP's electoral performance in states with significant Christian populations. Church leaders, motivated by the BJP's anti-minority policies, played a proactive role in mobilizing voters against the party. This shift in voter sentiment underscores the broader regional discontent with the BJP's handling of minority issues.
The BJP's electoral setbacks in the northeastern states have necessitated a coalition government at the Centre. This coalition dynamic may compel the BJP to moderate its stance on minority issues to avoid alienating its powerful allies. The recent statement by the RSS chief emphasizing the need to resolve the Manipur crisis on priority indicates a potential shift in approach. The BJP's future in the northeastern states hinges on its ability to address the underlying issues fueling the ethnic conflict in Manipur. A sincere and concerted effort to restore peace, ensure communal harmony, and address the grievances of the minority communities is essential. Failure to do so will only exacerbate the existing discontent and further erode the party's support base in the region. The BJP must recognize that resolving the Manipur crisis is not only a moral imperative but also a political necessity. The people of Manipur and the broader northeastern region deserve a government that prioritizes peace, stability, and inclusive development. Only by addressing these core issues can the BJP hope to regain the trust and support of the northeastern electorate.
