One of the most astute initiatives of Pakistan’s early foreign policy was establishing relations with China in the early 1950s. As the third non-communist and first Muslim country to recognize the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Pakistan demonstrated a keen sense of geopolitical foresight. At a time when the West did not acknowledge the PRC, extending United Nations and UN Security Council seats to Taiwan instead, Pakistan took a bold step that would shape its future.
In the 1970s, global politics and regional dynamics shifted significantly, justifying a rapprochement between China and the United States. Pakistan played a pivotal role in facilitating this transformation. The visit of Henry Kissinger to China in July 1971, orchestrated through Pakistan's mediation, laid the groundwork for President Nixon’s historic visit to China in February 1972. This diplomatic maneuvering not only opened China to the international community but also solidified Pakistan’s role as a strategic partner and bridge between East and West.
During this period, Pakistan and China established comprehensive political, economic, diplomatic, and cultural relations. China has not forgotten Pakistan’s diplomatic support during its isolation, recognizing the role Pakistan played as a bridge to the international community. This historical camaraderie laid the foundation for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship project of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
The concept of CPEC can be traced back to the late 1950s, with significant groundwork laid during President Musharraf’s era. In 2013, the government under President Asif Ali Zardari signed a Memorandum of Understanding with China to initiate CPEC. By 2015, both governments had agreed to kick off CPEC projects, marking the beginning of an ambitious journey towards economic development and regional connectivity. In 2024, under the leadership of Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, Pakistan has embarked on the revival of CPEC Phase 2. A key focus is the Main-Line 1 (ML1) project, initially valued at around $9 billion, later adjusted to $6-7 billion due to debt concerns. This project aims to reconstruct and modernize a 1726 km track of railway line, significantly enhancing Pakistan’s economy, cargo capacity, and passenger traffic.
The second phase of CPEC also emphasizes the establishment of Special Economic Zones (SEZs) to attract trade, investment, and manufacturing capabilities. Despite challenges posed by COVID-19, Pakistan has managed to establish four SEZs, offering special incentives and tax exemptions to create a business-friendly environment. Gwadar port is seen as the crown jewel of CPEC. With 70% of Chinese goods passing through the Strait of Malacca, a potential choke point in case of conflict with the USA, Gwadar offers a strategic alternative. Connecting Gwadar to Kashgar via a network of roads, railways, and highways ensures a secure trade route for China and transforms Pakistan into a potential regional trade hub linking South Asia, the Middle East, and Central Asia.
CPEC is widely viewed as a game-changer for Pakistan, deepening its strategic and economic ties with China. Beyond bilateral benefits, CPEC has the potential to extend into Iran, Afghanistan, and Central Asia, fostering regional connectivity and economic integration. China's strategic investments in Iran and Afghanistan indicate a broader vision for extending CPEC's reach.
The United States, viewing China’s economic initiatives with suspicion, has engaged in strategic competition, offering rival projects like the Build Back Better World (B3W) initiative and the Global Gateway. However, these initiatives have not matched the impact of BRI and CPEC. The USA has also been involved in defaming CPEC as a debt trap and has pressured Pakistan to reconsider some projects, often through the International Monetary Fund (IMF). These actions are largely politically motivated.
India has consistently opposed CPEC, particularly due to the involvement of the Gilgit-Baltistan region, which it claims as part of its territory. Pakistan has dismissed these claims, reiterating that Gilgit-Baltistan and Kashmir are integral parts of Pakistan. Reports of covert Indian attacks on Chinese workers and engineers involved in CPEC projects and instigating terrorism in Balochistan to disrupt Gwadar port underscore the geopolitical tensions.
To fully realize the potential of CPEC, Pakistan must address several internal and external challenges. A primary obstacle to CPEC’s success is terrorism. Ensuring security for Chinese workers and the broader project infrastructure is crucial. Political stability at home is essential for the smooth implementation of CPEC projects. Consistent policy and administrative support can prevent delays.
Revamping economic policies to reduce bureaucratic red tape can facilitate faster project implementation. Streamlining processes will attract more investment and ensure efficient project execution. While concerns about debt from CPEC projects are valid, a strategic approach to debt management can mitigate these risks. Developing clear plans to manage and repay CPEC-related debts is essential.
Pakistan must navigate its relations with both China and the USA carefully. While deepening ties with China, Pakistan cannot afford to alienate the USA. Diplomatic balance is key to maintaining beneficial relationships with both powers. Pakistan's early recognition of the People's Republic of China in the 1950s set the stage for a robust and strategic partnership that has grown over decades. The role Pakistan played in bridging China to the world during its isolation has not been forgotten, as evidenced by the deep economic and strategic ties between the two nations.
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor stands as a testament to this enduring partnership, promising economic growth and regional connectivity. Despite geopolitical challenges and internal hurdles, CPEC offers Pakistan a unique opportunity to transform its economic landscape and assert its position as a regional hub. As Pakistan moves forward with CPEC Phase 2, addressing security concerns, ensuring political stability, and implementing necessary economic reforms will be crucial. By managing its debts strategically and maintaining balanced relations with global powers, Pakistan can fully leverage the benefits of CPEC.
In a world marked by shifting alliances and strategic competition, Pakistan's relationship with China serves as a model of enduring partnership and mutual benefit. CPEC is not just a project; it is a symbol of this partnership, poised to bring prosperity and stability to Pakistan and the broader region. The future of Pakistan-China relations, built on a foundation of historical camaraderie and strategic foresight, holds great promise for both nations and their shared vision of development and connectivity.
