Most of the football and men's basketball coaches are either too new or too successful to be in danger of losing their jobs next year.
The Hotline mailbag publishes weekly. Send questions to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com and include ‘mailbag’ in the subject line. Or hit me on Twitter/X: @WilnerHotline.
Please note: Some questions have been edited for clarity and brevity.
Of the 10 departing Pac-12 schools, are any coaches on the hot seat? Or do they get a free pass, since the programs not named Oregon, USC and Utah are broke? — @bdgiddens6
Interesting question — and something we had not deeply considered until now.
It’s relevant for competitive and financial reasons, as you stated. Most of the 10 schools are in less-than-ideal position to swallow significant buyouts if the head coach flounders next season.
And since you didn’t specify the sport, we will address both football and men’s basketball here.
On the football front …
None of the coaches heading into the Big 12 are on hot, or even warm seats.
Deion Sanders runs the show in Boulder, Kenny Dillingham is crawling out of a school-made mess in Tempe, Brent Brennan is entering his first season in Tucson, and Kyle Whittingham is the crown prince of Salt Lake City.
We can’t envision hot seat situations for the ACC-bound schools, either. Troy Taylor is entering his second season at Stanford, and Justin Wilcox just took Cal to a bowl game.
The quartet of schools entering the Big Ten includes newcomers in Seattle (Jedd Fisch) and Westwood (DeShaun Foster). They are in no danger. Oregon’s Dan Lanning might feel a little heat if he loses to Washington again, but his job isn’t in jeopardy.
The hottest football seat, by far, belongs to USC’s Lincoln Riley.
The Trojans had a deeply disappointing season, largely because of their inept defense. A mediocre first year in the Big Ten — six or seven wins, for example — will undoubtedly lead to calls for Riley’s removal.
And he’s working for a new boss, athletic director Jen Cohen, who was hired last summer.
Barring a sub-.500 season for the Trojans, a coaching change seems unlikely. But compared to his nine peers at the outbound schools, Riley’s seat is unquestionably the hottest.
On the basketball front …
Washington, Stanford, Cal and USC will have first- or second-year coaches next season.
Colorado’s Tad Boyle and Oregon’s Dana Altman will go out on their own terms. Arizona’s Tommy Lloyd just signed an extension through 2029, and UCLA’s Mick Cronin could use a solid season but isn’t in danger of removal.
That leaves two: Utah’s Craig Smith, who will be under above-average pressure to reach the NCAAs in his fourth year, and ASU’s Bobby Hurley, who sits on the hottest seat of the 20 coaches assessed here.
Yep, Hurley’s seat is hotter than Riley’s.
ASU just went 8-12 in conference play and missed the NCAAs for the third time in four years.
If the Sun Devils don’t reach the field of 68 in March of 2025, look for a change in Tempe — even though Hurley’s program has not received the resources needed for consistent success.
If Washington State and Oregon State were to have their way in selecting schools, what would their ideal Pac-8/10/12 look like? — @MarcSheehan006
The key word isn’t “selecting” so much as selective. The ‘Pac-2’ schools must devise a strategy that provides short-term stability, starting with the 2026 season, while creating a path to long-haul prosperity.
A full reverse merger with the 12 schools in the Mountain West, to form the Pac-14, would not satisfy the latter requirement. Why? Because too many of the 14 members would offer below-standard media and competitive value.
If the Hotline were advising WSU and OSU, our focus would be on luring the top schools in the Mountain West (San Diego State, Boise State, Fresno State and Colorado State, plus UNLV) and a few schools from other time zones.
Expand the footprint. Grow the market. Add members with the potential to flourish.
That means examining the viability of WAC, Conference USA and American Athletic Conference schools.
Officials in Pullman and Corvallis have been consistent in their approach: Nothing is off the table for rebuilding the Pac-12. And that’s the only logical tact. When you are adrift in open water, any lifeboat will suffice.
But before the ‘Pac-2’ schools start the expansion process, they must stay flexible and monitor the ACC’s situation.
If the conference collapses in the wake of lawsuits by Florida State and Clemson, the calculation could change for WSU and OSU.
How do Stanford and Cal reconcile their carbon footprint with all those flight miles in the ACC? — @olympiccard1
They don’t. They can’t.
The Hotline asked about that very issue on Sept. 1, when the schools announced they were joining the ACC, and the response was, essentially: That wasn’t a consideration.
Instead, the Cardinal and Bears were focused on finding the best situation for their athletes.
The moral and ethical merits of their decision to join a conference based on the Atlantic Seaboard can and undoubtedly will be debated on both campuses, especially in the faculty offices.
In your assessment of the NFL Draft on Thursday night, you point out what a recruiting haul Chris Petersen had with Washington in 2019. How do you think things might have played out if Petersen had stayed on as head coach? — @Cargoman0363
We love plunging into hypothetical topics and alternative history, but this discussion has little meat on which we can chew.
Why? Because if Petersen hadn’t stepped down in December 2019, just before the pandemic, he would have quit in the 2021-22 window. He could not have reconciled his approach to coaching and team-building in the era of NIL and the transfer portal.
In our view, Petersen would have coached through the COVID season and one more year — not enough time to sketch a different trajectory for the Huskies.
But it’s interesting to think about the Pac-12 media rights negotiations had Petersen remained in charge. Kalen DeBoer’s concern over an all-streaming media deal was a primary reason Washington bolted for the Big Ten on the morning of Aug. 4.
Would Petersen have felt the same way?
Or would he have prioritized remaining in a West Coast conference?
The Olympics are coming up. Who are some Pac-12 athletes competing this year in the Olympic sports we don’t always hear about? — @SirCharles_OG
In the highest-profile sport, the list features former Arizona guard Steve Kerr, who will coach a USA Basketball team that includes former UCLA guard Jrue Holiday.
Then there’s Katie Ledecky, the former Stanford swimmer and one of the most decorated Olympians in U.S. history.
Another former Pac-12 athlete to watch: Devon Allen. The ex-Oregon football player is an elite hurdler but must qualify for Paris at the Olympic trials this summer.
Of the current Pac-12 athletes, Jade Carey, the Oregon State gymnast and 2020 Olympic champion (in the floor exercise), is high on the must-watch list.
The Hotline will have more coverage of Pac-12 athletes in Paris once the trials conclude and teams are announced.
With the demise of the Pac-12, will you be doing any “Best Of …” or favorite Pac-12 stories this offseason? — @kmasterman
We will, indeed. Look for those in June and perhaps July, as well.
The 10 schools don’t officially depart the Pac-12 until Aug. 2, although their transitions to new leagues will be effectively completed by that point.
Over the next three months, the Hotline will cover topics that pertain to the Pac-12 as it currently exists, the Pac-12 as it will look starting on Aug. 2 and, of course, the issues that matter to the 10 outbound schools.
Any developments in the ACC, Big 12 or Big Ten that impact the departing members will be reported, and analyzed, here.
Our coverage zone isn’t decreasing. It’s expanding.
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