Despite being a former president still protected by a Secret Service detail, Donald Trump could see real time spent behind bars if a jury finds him guilty of falsifying business records in an effort to disguise payments to a former adult film star.
And the odds grow worse for him should he decide to take the stand in Judge Juan Merchan's courtroom sometime during the next six weeks the current trial is expected to last, according to attorney Norm Eisen.
In a column for the New York Times, Eisen wrote that a survey of the history of other defendants who faced similar charges the former president is facing shows jail time after a guilty verdict is not unprecedented in the least.
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As Eisen explained, there are obvious extenuating circumstances when it comes to Trump they may keep him from having to be incarcerated for an extended period of time, but that doesn't mean jail time is "off the table."
"A review of thousands of cases in New York that charged the same felony suggests something striking: If Mr. Trump is found guilty, incarceration is an actual possibility. It’s not certain, of course, but it is plausible," he wrote before adding, "My analysis of the most recent data indicates that approximately one in 10 cases in which the most serious charge at arraignment is falsifying business records in the first degree, and in which the court ultimately imposes a sentence, results in a term of imprisonment.
Beyond that, he added, is the very real possibility that the former president could take the stand where he could be at risk of perjuring himself due to his penchant to speak first and think after.
"If he receives a sentence of incarceration, perhaps the likeliest term is six months, although he could face up to four years, particularly if Mr. Trump chooses to testify, as he said he intends to do, and the judge believes he lied on the stand. Probation is also available, as are more flexible approaches like a sentence of spending every weekend in jail for a year," he wrote.
Eisen did add the caveat, "If Mr. Trump is convicted and then loses the presidential election, he will likely be granted bail pending an appeal, which would take about a year. That means if any appeals were unsuccessful, he would likely have to serve any sentence starting sometime next year," before explaining, "So if Mr. Trump is convicted and sentenced to a period of incarceration, its ultimate significance is likely this: When the American people go to the polls in November, they would be voting on whether Mr. Trump should be held accountable for his original election interference."
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