UFC Austin Gambling preview: Can Beneil Dariush get back into title contention with a win over Arman Tsarukyan?

UFC Austin takes place this Saturday at the Moody Center, headlined by a lightweight matchup between Beneil Dariush and Arman Tsarukyan, and we’re here to break it all down for you.

How much does Dariush have left in the tank? Can Tsarukyan finally make a run to a title shot? How will the short notice affect Jalin Turner and Bobby Green? What does Deiveson Figueiredo look like up at 135 pounds? Let’s dive into all those topics and more as we discuss the best bets this weekend.

As always, all odds are courtesy of our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Straight Bets

Beneil Dariush, +250

I’m a bit surprised to see the odds this wide on the main event. When Dariush fought Mateusz Gamrot a year ago, he was a +225 underdog, and went on to deliver a consummate beatdown of the surging, grappling-first prospect. I remember because I bet against him in that fight. Now he faces another surging, grappling-based prospect (one who happened to lose to Gamrot) and he’s once again a big underdog. I like to learn from my mistakes.

Tsarukyan and Gamrot are not the same fighter, but they paint with similar brushes and Dariush has proven to be quite adept at burning down those sorts of easels. Dariush is a great grappler and defensive wrestler and still has the edge on the feet. Five rounds probably favors Tsarukyan some, but Dariush is battle tested and should be much closer to even odds than he currently is.

Rob Font, -130

Simply put, this is a bit of a fade on Figueiredo’s move to bantamweight. “Figgy Smalls” was electric as the flyweight champion, but now he’s moving up to 135 pounds for the first time and he’s facing a guy who will dwarf him in the cage. Not only is Font substantially larger than Figueiredo, but he’s also the more high-volume striker. That’s a bad combination and the only real way I see for Figueiredo to win is to land big power shots that swing the momentum. That can be done against Font, as guys like Jose Aldo and Chito Vera showed, but it’s also a hard way to make a living given how durable Font is. If Aldo and Vera couldn’t get Font out of there, Figueiredo won’t be able to either, and instead he’ll get overwhelmed with volume.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Prop Bets

Jalin Turner To Win By KO/TKO/DQ or Submission, +130

I’ll admit that I felt better about this bet before Turner started talking about this fight and basically saying he was forced into taking it. That plus the fact that it’s short notice and his weight cut appears to be a struggle are all reasons NOT to bet on Turner. But I can’t help myself, I’m a moron.

I’ve been extremely high on Jalin Turner for years and despite his two-fight losing skid, I still believe in him as a future title challenger. Bobby Green is a darn good fighter and the textbook definition of a hard-nosed veteran, but he’s getting on in years and even at his peak, still presents an attackable style for Turner. Both men like to scrap and that’s what I envision we’re getting, and in that I favor Turner’s size and power to overcome Green’s savvy.

Sean Brady vs. Kelvin Gastelum Over 2.5 Rounds, -140

After he got demolished by Belal Muhammad, people are out on the Sean Brady hype train. I get it, but I’m not one of them. Brady is still young and still quite good, he simply ran into one of the best fighters in the world.

Conversely, Gastelum is 2-4 since coming up short in his interim middleweight title shot against Israel Adesanya, and now he’s making his first drop to welterweight in seven years. We have no idea how he’s about to look. But I’m still pretty confident that even if he’s not one of the best in the world, he’s still darn tough. I expect this to be a competitive affair that sees the judges’s scorecards

Photo by Brandon Magnus/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Parlay of the Week

Joaquim Silva, -310

Silva faces Clay Guida in a main card bout that largely serves as a get-back fight for Silva who agreed to fight Arman Tsarukyan when most people were passing (and to his credit, he performed well!) Guida will turn 42 next week and his best years are long gone. I expect Silva to roll.

Rodolfo Bellato, -380

Bellator is fighting Ihor Potieria, a man best known for retiring Shogun Rua. Personally, I will never forgive Potieria for that, or for the way he danced afterwards. This man is my mortal enemy and thus I will fade him at every opportunity moving forward.

Parlay these three bets together for -149 odds.

Photo by Brandon Magnus/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Long Shot of the Week

Miesha Tate To Win By Submission, +900

This is absolutely a sucker bet, but that’s what I am. Tate takes on Julia Avila in the prelim main event. It’s the former bantamweight champion’s first fight in nearly 18 months and her return to 135 pounds after a failed experiment at flyweight. Moreover, Tate has not looked good since coming back from retirement two years ago and there’s a serious question about how much she has left.

All that being said, Avila was never a particularly great fighter and she is returning after nearly 30 months away. On top of that, she was never a great defensive wrestler, which is where Tate’s bread is buttered. Has Avila ever been submitted? Nope. But that’s why the price is this high!

For what it’s worth, I’m also on Tate straight up, basically banking on Tate still having enough juice left for one final showing, and Avila being too rusty from the time off. But for a price like this, I’m also quite happy to throw a dart for Tate to pull it off with a submission.

Wrap Up

We’ve been off for a few weeks but last time out we did fine. Three events left this year, let’s end on a strong note.

Until next week, enjoy the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!

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