If and when it happens, the Soto trade will alter the baseball landscape. Savor the excitement before it shuffle-steps into the past.
LOS ANGELES — As anyone who has watched Juan Soto make Dodger Stadium his personal playground over the last week can attest, there is no baseball player quite like him. He is playful yet intense, gifted yet flawed, entertaining enough to turn the act of watching a ball miss the strike zone into high theater.
Likewise, any trade of Soto wouldn’t be quite like any trade before it. At 23 years old, Soto is already among the game’s best hitters. The Washington Nationals were confident enough in his talent to offer a record 15-year, $440 million contract earlier this year. Soto was confident enough in his talent to reject the offer, opening the possibility of a trade to a contending team.
With multiple teams now bidding in earnest for his services, Soto seems destined to be dealt between now and next Tuesday’s 3 p.m. PT deadline. These circumstances are not just unusual. They’re unprecedented.
The acquiring team will have Soto’s singular talent for a little more than two seasons and three postseasons. That is not the same as trading for Mike Trout, who is signed through 2030. To cite a non-hypothetical example, it’s not the same as the New York Yankees trading for Alex Rodriguez in 2004, when seven years remained on the contract Rodriguez signed with the Texas Rangers. Contending teams frequently trade for veteran players whose contracts expire at the end of the current season. This is not that, either.
Still, whichever team gets Soto inherits a clearly defined event horizon. He is determined to test the free agent market in 2024-25. The team acquiring him must be singularly focused on winning a World Series between now and then, and not necessarily afterward – or else be prepared to bid against whatever outrageous offer(s) Soto receives that winter. Otherwise, the trade will be for naught.
This should eliminate all but a few possible acquiring teams: those willing and able to pay a large luxury tax (think Mets, Dodgers, Yankees), and those willing to tear down and rebuild three years from now (think Seattle Mariners, Padres, Toronto Blue Jays, and perhaps others).
The St. Louis Cardinals were reported Wednesday to be the frontrunners for Soto. Historically, they do not rebuild wholesale or run afoul of the luxury tax. Maybe this is proof that, when your team has the prospect capital to acquire Juan Soto, you chuck your five-year plan out the window and make a trade.
Even within that septet of squads, Soto’s impact would vary. The Mets, Dodgers and Yankees could conceivably reach the 2022 World Series without him. Their purpose would be threefold: 1, to upgrade their DH/corner outfield position for the next two-plus years; 2, to prevent a key rival from doing the same; 3, hopefully, to add an element of entertainment to the roster for the sake of good ol’-fashioned entertainment.
The Mariners can afford to pay Soto his arbitration-eligible salary and, if their past spending habits are any indication, still supplement their talented young core in free agency over the next two seasons. A significant gap stands between the American League’s top tier (the Yankees and Houston Astros) and the next tier. Acquiring Soto would help the Mariners close that gap.
The same could be said of the Blue Jays. The difference there: Toronto needs another bat like the summer needs more heat. Only the Yankees and Dodgers have scored more runs in 2022. Still, the Blue Jays’ best left-handed hitter is Raimel Tapia. Soto would bring balance to the lineup, and lessen the pressure on the more pedestrian parts of their pitching staff.
The Padres have never run a payroll as high as the last two years under chairman Peter Seidler. They are already in uncharted territory. It’s unclear if or how Soto’s arbitration-eligible salary would fit within their internal budget the next two years; he is almost certain to be owed something in the $20-30 million range in 2023 and 2024.
Now that Seidler has committed to spending, it makes little sense not to go all-out in pursuit of a championship. The gap between the Padres and Dodgers is sizeable, but not so large that Soto couldn’t make the difference between winning and losing a best-of-seven playoff series. The Padres reportedly have the prospect capital to outlast all comers in a bidding war. Remember, they quite nearly beat out the Dodgers to land Max Scherzer and Trea Turner a year ago.
Like San Diego, St. Louis is long on star power. The Cardinals are also similarly stuck in the National League’s second tier. Soto would complement right-handed hitting stars Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, and give the Cardinals the rare trio that could compete with the Dodgers’ Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Turner. Again, in a best-of-seven series, that can make a difference.
If you’re handicapping Soto’s next destination at home, “the field” might come next. The Nationals’ front office might also not be swayed by any offer enough to keep Soto into the winter.
If and when it happens, the Soto trade will alter the baseball landscape. MLB is short on stars, shorter still on stars who are traded in their primes. One must reach into the recent past of the NBA (Anthony Davis?) or NHL (Matthew Tkachuk? Jonathan Huberdeau?) to draw an accurate comparison. That’s what makes this week so exciting. Savor it before it shuffle-steps into the past.
