According to an analysis by the Washington Post's Dan Balz, the Republican Party would be doing itself a disservice if they rush to anoint former president Donald Trump as their 2024 presidential nominee instead of seeing how he holds up in the primaries against fellow Republicans who also have an eye on the Oval Office.
Relying on an assortment of polls that are increasingly showing conservative voters are shopping around for a new candidate after Trump won one election and lost a second while never winning the popular vote, Balz suggested Trump might win the primaries but might falter again in the general election.
As the WaPo journalist pointed out, "The Donald Trump of 2022 does not look quite like the Donald Trump of old. One indication of this change came with the release of a new poll from NBC News. Over the course of Trump’s presidency and since he left office, the poll has tracked attitudes of Republicans, asking them whether they see themselves mainly as supporters of Trump or mainly supporters of the party itself."
Adding that, in the 2020 election, "54 percent of Republicans and independents who lean Republican said they considered themselves more a supporter of Trump than of the Republican Party, compared with 38 percent who said they considered themselves more a supporter of the Republican Party, " Balz reports, "The latest poll, released last weekend, shows a reversal in attitudes, compared with the pre-election 2020 survey, and a further decline from last January. Today, 56 percent of Republicans say they are more supporters of the party than of Trump, while 36 percent say they are more supporters of Trump than the party."
According to poll director Charles Franklin, Trump's numbers indicate an intriguing "gap" that should concern the GOP.
Pointing out that "73 percent of Republicans nationally view Trump favorably. Meanwhile, the poll shows that 63 percent of Republicans and 51 percent of Republican-leaning independents," Franklin noted, "That’s an interesting gap between 73 percent liking him but only about 60 percent saying they would like him to run again. That still leaves him as the odds-on favorite in a primary today, but you can see a gap between continued affection for Trump in the party but the opportunity to think about future candidates rather than past candidates."
According to Franklin, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) polls as well against President Joe Biden as Trump which should intrigue the GOP looking to retake the White House, with Balz adding, "It should be noted that some Republican strategists believe that in a straight-up, head-to-head test between Trump and Biden right now, the former president would be at rough parity with the incumbent."
Admitting that Trump would likely win the nomination after surviving the Republican primaries, the WaPo political analyst cautioned, "...the Republican Party would be taking a risk if Trump were simply handed the nomination without competition. Having lost the popular vote twice and the electoral college count once, Trump’s liabilities in a general election are obvious."
He added, "In the year since the attack on the Capitol, Trump’s standing across the breadth of his party has changed. Whether this is the beginning of something genuinely threatening to his standing or a minor hiccup that is of no real consequence is what all those Republicans with an eye on the White House want to know. For now, Trump remains the leader of the Republican Party and the nomination is his to lose — if he decides to run."
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