China’s bid to split the EU by teaming up with Germany and France
The post Divide and Rule; Olympic Boycotts; Three Seas; Spy Bust first appeared on CEPA.Hello, and welcome to China Influence Monitor, a weekly newsletter published by CEPA and Coda Story and edited by me, Edward Lucas. We track the westward footprint of China’s influence operations, and their effects on politics, economies, societies, and alliances across Central Asia, the Caucasus, Russia, and Europe.
DIVIDE AND RULE
At an online summit with Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel, Xi Jinping suggested a “Quad” in which the two big European countries and China would coordinate their development and other work in Africa.
There’s no sign of African countries being consulted about this gimmicky proposal. And it didn’t feature in the French or German read-outs of the talks.
A previous three-way meeting was in April. Since then the US administration has chivvied the G7 into taking a tougher line on China, especially the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This call shows how the party-state is trying to split the EU by wooing France and Germany.
Instead, suggests Lithuania, China should confront the full weight of the EU, representing 445 million people and with a $20 trillion GDP (measured by purchasing power), at a 27+1 summit. A splenetic warning from Global Times shows that the gutsy government in Vilnius is on the right track on this (and on Taiwan).
The EU is at least talking about challenging the already-wobbly BRI. European governments have tasked the Commission to find “high impact and visible projects” to rival the infrastructure scheme (for more on EU-China policy read Grzegorz Stec’s backgrounder for RUSI).
Words are plentiful, deeds less so. The most practical counter to China’s influence in Europe is the Three Seas Initiative, backed by some hefty US financing, which aims to boost connectivity between the Baltic, Adriatic, and the Black Sea. But the scheme lacks an institutional framework or consistent leadership. This week’s summit flop in Sofia justifies our earlier skepticism about Bulgaria’s stewardship of the rotating presidency. Let’s hope Latvia (up next) does better.
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WHAT WE’RE WATCHING
This documentary on Chinese settlers in Siberia.
Many thanks to Makuna Berkatsashvili, Mariam Kaparoidze and Mary Steffenhagen at Coda Story, and to Michael Newton at CEPA.
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Best regards,
Edward
July 8, 2021