The number of confirmed infections has climbed by more than 50% over the past two weeks.
Coronavirus cases in Marin have climbed by more than 50% over the past two weeks, bringing the county’s total to 420 on Tuesday.
The county has reported five of its six highest one-day jumps in cases in those two weeks since May 12, when there were 271 cumulative cases.
“It’s concerning,” said Dr. Matt Willis, the county’s chief public health officer, noting that Marin’s coronavirus curve is increasing.
But it’s unclear whether the spike in confirmed cases represents a new coronavirus outbreak, Willis said. The trend, he noted, aligns with an increase in testing for the virus. The county says it has nearly tripled its testing capacity over the past three weeks, and is now testing at least 500 people per day on average. In total, 11,796 people have been tested in Marin.
Health officials are focused on testing people who live in communities with high concentrations of workers deemed “essential” during the pandemic, Willis told the county Board of Supervisors on Tuesday. Those communities include San Rafael’s Canal neighborhood and parts of Novato, he said.
Testing has “revealed spikes of cases among people who work in public service jobs, such as grocery stores, construction sites, gas stations, food service and restaurants, school services, and landscaping,” the county said Tuesday in a statement.
Almost 200 people who have tested positive in Marin — roughly half of the county’s total — live in an area that includes San Rafael and surrounding neighborhoods, according to data provided by the county Department of Health and Human Services. The department only provides a breakdown of cases for five regions within the county. An area that includes Novato has almost 100 cases, the Southern Marin area has 59, Central Marin has 46 and West Marin has 15.
Marin County has declined the Independent Journal’s public record request for a breakdown of cases by city and town. Deputy County Counsel Valorie Boughey said that “sharing such information publicly would constitute an unwarranted invasion of personal privacy, especially given the smaller size of both Marin County’s communities and its COVID-19-positive populations.”
Because the number of coronavirus diagnoses in the county is influenced by variabilities in testing, public health officials look to other factors — including hospitalizations — in assessing the trajectory of the virus, according to Willis. The number of coronavirus patients in Marin’s hospitals has remained relatively stagnant, Willis said, with just a few hospitalized Tuesday. The number of coronavirus deaths has remained unchanged since it hit 14 on May 5.
About 4.4% of coronavirus test results have been positive over the past week — down from about 7%, on average, before the county increased its testing capacity earlier this month, according to Willis. The percentage of positive tests is another indicator that officials use in determining whether a spike in cases represents an outbreak, he said.
Willis said he plans to extend Marin’s stay-at-home order, which is set to expire June 1, but he will ease certain restrictions depending on this week’s test results and hospitalizations. More cases could mean more restrictions will stay in place, he said.
“I’m looking very carefully at the numbers throughout this week,” he said.
