'We see a springtime recession': A Wall Street firm is counting down to the next crisis

Filed under: News, US, Economics

Mark your calendars: Spring 2020 is when the next recession will arrive, according to Societe Generale.

Labor costs at root of next recession

3 investment recommendations

• Bet on consumer staples versus consumer discretionary stocks because the latter could struggle to initiate debt-financed buybacks during a downturn. The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR exchange-traded fund provides exposure to the relevant S&P 500 stocks. 
• Be long MSCI emerging-market equities versus the Nasdaq 100 for three reasons: more regulatory scrutiny, new tax rules adapted to the data-driven economy, and further pressure on earnings momentum. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF tracks more than 800 stocks. 
• Prefer 'old tech' (Microsoft, Intel, and Apple) to 'new tech' (Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook) in a US presidential election year should Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders gain further momentum among the Democratic candidates.

• GOLDMAN SACHS: Equity traders are expecting an economic acceleration — and these 12 stocks are best positioned to skyrocket as conditions improve
• 'They're all going to lose all their money': A hedge fund CEO warns the stock market is brewing a bubble similar to the time bomb that exploded in early 2018
• 'I wouldn't be surprised to go 10 more years': One expert explains why the market rally is just getting started — and why he thinks stocks are 16% undervalued

Read more...

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Mark your calendars: Spring 2020 is when the next recession will arrive, according to Societe Generale.

Labor costs at root of next recession

3 investment recommendations

• Bet on consumer staples versus consumer discretionary stocks because the latter could struggle to initiate debt-financed buybacks during a downturn. The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR exchange-traded fund provides exposure to the relevant S&P 500 stocks. 
• Be long MSCI emerging-market equities versus the Nasdaq 100 for three reasons: more regulatory scrutiny, new tax rules adapted to the data-driven economy, and further pressure on earnings momentum. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF tracks more than 800 stocks. 
• Prefer 'old tech' (Microsoft, Intel, and Apple) to 'new tech' (Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook) in a US presidential election year should Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders gain further momentum among the Democratic candidates.

• GOLDMAN SACHS: Equity traders are expecting an economic acceleration — and these 12 stocks are best positioned to skyrocket as conditions improve
• 'They're all going to lose all their money': A hedge fund CEO warns the stock market is brewing a bubble similar to the time bomb that exploded in early 2018
• 'I wouldn't be surprised to go 10 more years': One expert explains why the market rally is just getting started — and why he thinks stocks are 16% undervalued

Read more...