Big 12 MBB tournament preview: Can anyone derail Arizona? The contenders are flawed but dangerous
Storylines are plentiful as the Big 12 men’s basketball tournament approaches, from the glass floor at T-Mobile Center and the lineup of powerhouse teams to the potential bracket busters and the, err, glass floor at T-Mobile Center.
Commissioner Brett Yormark’s latest branding strategy — the LED floor can display digital graphics beneath the playing surface — is sure to generate reaction from fans in the arena and watching at home.
Hopefully, the on-court action in Kansas City will generate more buzz than the floor itself.
Here’s our forecast, with the participants broken into five tiers.
The clear favorite
Arizona: One of three frontrunners for the Final Four (along with Michigan and Duke), the Wildcats bludgeoned their way through the Big 12 with one impressive win after another. With their array of scorers, productive bench and wide bodies up front, they are perfectly built to win three games in three days on a neutral court. A close game (or two) would probably serve Arizona well as it prepares for the treacherous waters of the NCAA Tournament. But the pressure on Tommy Lloyd and Co. is limited: They have secured the No. 1 seed in the West regardless of the results in Kansas City. In fact, you could make the case the Wildcats would be better off losing in the Big 12 semifinals and grabbing an extra day of rest before the Madness.
The contenders
Houston: The Cougars went 0-3 in a brutal eight-day stretch against Iowa State, Arizona and Kansas that exposed a significant weakness: Their over-reliance on freshman guard Kingston Flemings, a future NBA lottery pick who has struggled down the stretch. Whether Houston departs in the quarterfinals or successfully defends its Big 12 title depends on a second scorer emerging. It doesn’t have to be the same player each game, but somebody has to take the load off Flemings.
Iowa State: When the Cyclones are on their game, watch out: They won at Purdue by 23 points, blasted Kansas and beat both St. John’s and Houston. But they have a slew of suboptimal losses, as well. Typically, the culprit is a sputtering offense — a forever problem in Ames, it seems. That said, forward Joshua Jefferson is arguably the best all-around player in the conference and plenty capable of carrying the Cyclones into the championship game.
Kansas: The top individual talent in the Big 12 resides in Lawrence, but which version of Darryn Peterson will be on the glass court in Kansas City? Heck, will Peterson even be on the court? There’s no telling how the mercurial freshman will respond or what affliction (headache, hangnail) might surface. The Jayhawks have struggled on the road but been terrific at home, especially in big games, and the atmosphere in T-Mobile should be to their liking. In our view, KU has the best chance to prevent Arizona’s coronation.
The pretenders
TCU: The Horned Frogs dropped four of their first five conference games but have sizzled down the stretch and are a threat to bust their half of the bracket in Kansas City. (The strong finish has seemingly pushed TCU onto the safe side of the NCAA Tournament bubble.) Their weakness, as with so many teams in the Big 12, is offense.
Texas Tech: If not for the season-ending injury to star forward JT Toppin, the Red Raiders would have a spot on the tier of contenders. Without the high-scoring big man, they depend heavily on guards Christian Anderson and Donovan Atwell, who combine for more than 30 points per game. Texas Tech is plenty capable of reaching the semifinals, but that’s as far as we envision the Red Raiders advancing in their post-Toppin existence.
We’re sayin’ there’s a chance
Arizona State: Every player on the roster knows the next loss will end coach Bobby Hurley’s tenure in Tempe. Emotion can propel teams to unexpected short-term success. Don’t be surprised if the Sun Devils inflict serious damage.
Baylor: The Bears are an outlier in the Big 12 in that they can score with anyone, anywhere — guard Cameron Carr slapped Arizona around for 26 points recently — but struggle to defend consistently. For that reason, we view Baylor as a two-hit wonder, a team equipped to advance out of the early rounds but not quite stout enough to survive the semifinals.
BYU: Few teams in the country have fallen faster than the Cougars, who were recently run off the court by UCF (13 points) and Cincinnati (22). Clearly, the absence of wing Richie Saunders (torn ACL) is a contributing factor, but the Cougars are soft defensively, as well. Their fate depends on wondrous freshman AJ Dybantsa, who can win one game by himself but probably not two.
Cincinnati: Just when it seemed coach Wes Miller was headed for the unemployment line, the Bearcats got hot — hot enough to win by 16 points at Kansas and flatten BYU. They won’t go down easily or early. We expect to see the Bearcats in the quarterfinals.
UCF: The Knights seemingly had an NCAA Tournament bid locked up but stumbled in the final weeks and will be under significant pressure to win their opener in Kansas City. Given that those recent losses were to second-rate opponents (Baylor and Oklahoma State), the Knights could very well depart early.
West Virginia: Regardless of their postseason fate — and we don’t expect much — the Mountaineers have overachieved under first-year coach Ross Hodge and should be a factor in the conference race next season.
Thanks for playing
Colorado: Since joining the Big 12, the Buffaloes are 1-15 in conference games played at (or near) sea level. Kansas City’s elevation: 900 feet.
Oklahoma State: The Cowboys haven’t beaten any of the Big 12’s elite teams or given us any reason to believe that trend is about to change.
Kansas State: The Wildcats are more likely to make news with their coaching search than with any success on the court. Their season has been over-and-out since Jerome Tang was fired two weeks ago.
Utah: When does spring practice start?
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