NFL Execs Predict The Bears Could Trade Down From Pick #25 — And Why It Makes Sense
The Chicago Bears haven’t picked in the 20s of the 1st round since 2013, when they selected 20th overall. It is somewhat unfamiliar territory for this new regime. Bears general manager Ryan Poles has enjoyed a steady stream of top 10 picks over the past three years, assembling a promising young core of Darnell Wright, Caleb Williams, Rome Odunze, and Colston Loveland. This year will be more challenging. Several more players will be picked before the Bears go on the board. Many of them will be guys the team really wants. It will come down to how much the team trusts its evaluation ability.
However, some around the league aren’t so certain it will play out that way. Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune spoke with multiple executives, asking what they think the Bears might do. In their estimation, sticking and picking might not be Chicago’s first choice. They believe a strong possibility exists that Poles tries to trade down.
Said a college scouting director: “Instead of having to have seven guys on the board that you would take, now you have to have 15 or 25 that you’d like there. You get to a point where you’re like, ‘We don’t have 25 players we like in the first round.’ Then you start thinking about moving back, get some value.”…
The first thing an assistant general manager mentioned was looking to trade down.
“We would try to go back,” he said, “just because if you’re at 25, yes, you like the fifth-year option if you’re staying in the first round, but if I can get an extra third- or fourth-round pick to go from 25 to 33, there’s a chance I get the same player, right? At that point (No. 25), it’s starting to get to where across the league, boards are looking different. I’ve got this guy a little bit higher and you had him a little lower.
“Then you’re getting to the point, too, where it’s about team needs or targeted players, maybe like the Bears picking Luther Burden last year. Whatever the case may be. The top 10? We’ve all got those same players. When it gets to the back of Round 1, you need to be a little open to navigation…”
The Chicago Bears have somebody familiar with this approach.
Poles has already done it twice in his GM stint. He traded down from #1 overall to #9 in 2023, then again from #9 to #10. That doesn’t include the several other instances over the past four years where Poles moved down. He isn’t afraid to manipulate the board. Would he consider dropping out of the 1st round entirely? It has happened quite a lot over the past decade. In fact, Poles was part of one of the most impactful such trades in NFL history when Kansas City did it in 2016.
| Year | Team | Original 1st | Full Assets Received | Players Drafted with Capital |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Chiefs | No. 28 | #37 (2nd), #105 (4th), #178 (6th) | Chris Jones (DT), Parker Ehinger (OG), D.J. White (CB) |
| 2017 | Packers | No. 29 | #33 (2nd), #108 (4th) | Kevin King (CB), Vince Biegel (LB) |
| 2019 | Colts | No. 26 | #46 (2nd), 2020 2nd (became #34) | Ben Banogu (DE), Michael Pittman Jr. (WR) |
| 2022 | Bucs | No. 27 | #33 (2nd), #106 (4th), #180 (6th) | Logan Hall (DL), Cade Otton (TE), Ko Kieft (TE) |
| 2024 | Bills | No. 28 | #33 (2nd), #133 (4th), #141 (5th), #248 (7th) | Keon Coleman (WR), S. Van Pran-Granger (C), Travis Clayton (OT) |
| 2025 | Rams | No. 26 | #46 (2nd), #242 (7th), 2026 1st | Terrance Ferguson (TE), 2026 1st TBD |
| 2025 | Texans | No. 25 | #34 (2nd), #99 (3rd), 2026 3rd | Jayden Higgins (WR), 2026 3rd TBD |
Trading down carries hazards. There is a dangerous risk that you end up not landing any good players at all. However, in a class that is light on blue-chip talent, the sensible move might be to increase your inventory of picks, using quantity over quality to find some good players. Much depends on how wide a gap the Bears believe there will be between someone selected 25th and someone selected, say, 35th. If it’s negligible and they’re getting calls from teams wanting to jump into the back end of the 1st round, it is a strategy that can work.
Finding a trade partner will be the tricky part.
If you look back at the history of teams coming back into the 1st round, it’s often for one of two things: a quarterback or an offensive playmaker. You saw the New York Giants do it for Jaxson Dart last year. There is a distinct possibility that somebody at the top of the 2nd round who didn’t take a quarterback will want to come up to get somebody they covet. The Jets, Cardinals, Browns, and Dolphins all have major question marks at quarterback. All pick high in the 2nd round.
Let’s also not forget the Chicago Bears have seven picks in this draft. Poles has typically preferred to operate with more. Unless there is a can’t-miss player he and the coaches must have at #25, moving down is the logical move. This draft is known more for its depth than its star power. Adding extra selections gives them more opportunities to find starters. One good or even great player at #25 may not solve all of their issues. If they find willing partners, this scenario is an easy sell.