Another year in the wonderful world of MMA has come and gone, and once again, it’s been made abundantly clear that we are all Jon Snow and know nothing. 2024 saw six new UFC champions crowned, while five retained their titles, and frankly, the braintrust at MMA Fighting was not particularly good at predicting how all that would shake out. Only one of our number (shout out to E. Casey Leydon) managed to have an above 50 percent hit rate when predicting the end-of-year champions for 2024. Nevertheless, we persist.
With 2025 now upon us, it’s time to once again peer into our crystal balls and take another crack at predicting who the UFC champions will be this time next year.
MMA Fighting staffers Guilherme Cruz, Mike Heck, Alexander K. Lee, E. Casey Leydon, Damon Martin, Jed Meshew, and José Youngs make our selections below.
Join in the fun by letting us know your picks in the comments. Trust us: It’s much, much more difficult than you’d expect.
Tom Aspinall (4): Cruz, Leydon, Meshew, Youngs
Jon Jones (3): Heck, Lee, Martin
The heavyweight title situation remains as clear as mud.
Entering 2024, Jon Jones was the undisputed heavyweight champion with an uncertain future, while Tom Aspinall was the interim champion who appeared to be unlikely to get a shot at the unified title. Well, the more things change, the more they stay the same.
After beating Stipe Miocic at UFC 309 and finally putting that rivalry to bed, Jones made it clear that he will only return to defend his title under a few circumstances: either he gets to fight Alex Pereira, or they pay him a lot of money to fight Aspinall. Will either of those things happen? And if neither does, will the UFC strip Jones? Your guess is as good as ours.
So, given the uncertainty surrounding the heavyweight title, it’s not all that surprising that our panel is pretty evenly split, with a slight edge toward the fighter we know will still be competing by the end of the year.
Alex Pereira (4): Cruz, Heck, Martin, Youngs
Magomed Ankalaev (3): Lee, Leydon, Meshew
Another nail-biter as we move on down the line, and again, we have a title that lacks clarity.
If this were a few years ago, we’d be in a spot where very obviously light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira defends his title against Magomed Ankalaev next. But yesterday’s UFC is not today’s UFC, and that matchup is far from a certainty. As mentioned, Jon Jones wants to give Pereira a shot at the heavyweight title, and “Poatan” has been extremely clear about not wanting to give Ankalaev a title shot. There is a world where Pereira retains his title without even defending it once in 2024.
But if Pereira does fight at 205 pounds in 2025, Ankalaev seems most likely to get the shot at him, and nearly half of our panelists appear to believe that this time he can win the title. Even Alexander K. Lee, the lone panelist to pick Alex Pereira to retain his title in 2024, changed his tune and hopped on the Ankalaev train for this year. Still, given the incredible year Pereira had in 2024, it’s not surprising that he is the favorite to retain.
Khamzat Chimaev (4): Cruz, Heck, Lee, Youngs
Dricus du Plessis (2): Martin, Meshew
Nassourdine Imavov (1): Leydon
For what feels like the fourth year in a row, a majority of people believe Khamzat Chimaev will finally win a title.
The overwhelming favorite in 2024 to claim the middleweight title, the question with Chimaev has always been availability. But with Dricus du Plessis and Sean Strickland set to run things back at UFC 312 next month for the title, and Chimaev ostensibly taking on the winner, it looks like “Borz” may only have to make it to the cage one time in 2024 to make good on his potential.
Of course, there’s also a real wild-card selection here. Nassourdine Imavov, who had a strong 2024 campaign, still seems a ways off of a middleweight title shot, but a brave panelist made possibly the upset call of this entire exercise. Then again, nobody predicted Sean Strickland in 2023, and we saw how that worked out.
Shavkat Rakhmonov (5): Cruz, Heck, Lee, Leydon, Youngs
Belal Muhammad (1): Martin
Islam Makhachev (1): Meshew
Our first blowout win and it should come as no surprise. In 2024, an overwhelming majority of the panel picked Shavkat Rakhmonov to claim the welterweight title, with zero people predicting Belal Muhammad to hold the belt. And truth be told, Muhammad might not have had he not gotten injured at the end of the year.
Now, Rakhmonov is injured, so there’s some question of when the two might match up, but it seems a foregone conclusion that Rakhmonov will finally get a title shot this year, and most believe he’ll get the job done. However, one of us (*cough* me *cough*) thinks that after Rakhmonov wins the title, his first defense will be against lightweight champion Islam Makhachev, who will then take the belt from him.
Islam Makhachev (6): Cruz, Lee, Leydon, Martin, Meshew, Youngs
Arman Tsarukyan (1): Heck
Another clear choice here, and this should be even less surprising than the Rakhmonov prediction.
Islam Makhachev is the top pound-for-pound fighter in the sport and is steadily climbing the ranks of all-time greats, both in the lightweight division and pound-for-pound. His next step in the process is his scheduled title defense against Arman Tsarukyan later this month, and if he wins that, there’s no obvious contender to threaten him. Even if he loses at UFC 311, Makhachev likely gets a chance to reclaim the title before the end of the year, making him the overwhelming favorite among our staff to hold the belt at year’s end.
Ilia Topuria (6): Cruz, Heck, Leydon, Martin, Meshew, Youngs
Movsar Evloev (1): Lee
Unanimous picks are exceedingly rare in this exercise, but I’ll admit, I thought this would be one. Ilia Topuria is just 27 years old and the reigning Fighter of the Year, having earned that title by putting together one of the best two-fight runs in MMA history. That run was enough to silence most of the doubters, but apparently not all of them. Or perhaps Mr. Lee doubts Topuria sticks around the weight class?
While it seems likely that Topuria will defend against Alexander Volkanovski next, the featherweight champion has shown a decided disinterest in doing so, lobbying for a move up to lightweight instead. And while that may not be the most likely thing, if it happens, Evloev would be in prime position to step in as the man at 145 pounds.
Umar Nurmagomedov (6): Cruz, Lee, Leydon, Martin, Meshew, Youngs
Petr Yan (1): Heck
Merab Dvalishvili (0):
Talk about disrespect.
Long viewed as a champion in waiting, Merab Dvalishvili finally got his opportunity at the title in 2024 and took advantage, beating Sean O’Malley to take the belt, and not a single person on our panel believes he’ll still have it by February.
Dvalishvili defends his title against Umar Nurmagomedov in the co-main event of UFC 311 later this month, and every single panelist believes we’re in for “And New” when the time comes. Given how great Nurmagomedov has looked, perhaps it’s not surprising, but what is surprising is that one brave soul believes that former champion Petr Yan will then take the belt off of Nurmagomedov before the end of 2025.
Alexandre Pantoja (5): Cruz, Heck, Martin, Meshew, Youngs
Manel Kape (1): Leydon
Asu Almabayev (1): Lee
You know how Merab Dvalishvili can get some respect? Be like Alexander Pantoja. All the UFC flyweight champion has done the past few years is win (and do so impressively), and people are finally starting to give him his due.
I’m one of those people. I predicted Manel Kape to break through and take the flyweight title in 2024, but after watching “Pants” smush his way through the weight class, I’m done doubting him.
Kayla Harrison (5): Cruz, Lee, Leydon, Martin, Youngs
Amanda Nunes (2): Heck, Meshew
Julianna Peña (0):
And here we have another champion with no support in 2025, though this one is less surprising.
Many people don’t think Julianna Peña deserved to take the title from Raquel Pennington at UFC 307, and when you add in that nearly everyone is on the Kayla Harrison bandwagon, it makes sense that she would be the clear favorite to end the year as women’s bantamweight champion (in fact, Guilherme Cruz believes she will also win the women’s featherweight title!).
But, there are also a couple of us who believe that 2025 is the year we see former two-time bantamweight champion and WMMA GOAT Amanda Nunes make her return to the octagon. Nunes teased a return in 2024, and should Harrison beat Peña, it seems a certainty that Nunes will come back. And if Peña pulls off the upset and retains? Well, Nunes might be open to a trilogy bout as well.
Valentina Shevchenko (4): Cruz, Heck, Martin, Youngs
Weili Zhang (1): Leydon
Manon Fiorot (1): Meshew
Natalia Silva (1): Lee
What a difference a year makes.
Heading into 2024, Erin Blanchfield was the overwhelming choice to end the year as champion. That didn’t happen, and instead, Blanchfield lost to Manon Fiorot, and Valentina Shevchenko reclaimed her title with a workmanlike performance over Alexa Grasso in their trilogy bout.
The case for Shevchenko to retain her title is pretty clear: she’s one of the greatest fighters of all-time and the most dominant flyweight on the planet by a wide margin. But Shevchenko is also 36 and has been fighting for 20 years. At some point, time catches up with you, which appears to have led to a smattering of other options.
Tatiana Suarez (5): Cruz, Leydon, Martin, Meshew, Youngs
Zhang Weili (2): Heck, Lee
Yet another weight class where a majority of the panel believes we’re in for a new champion in 2024.
The strawweight division floundered in 2024 as champion Zhang Weili only defended her title one time. But 115 pounds could be in for an uptick in action in 2025 as Zhang is set to defend her title against Tatiana Suarez in the co-main event of UFC 312 next month.
Suarez, of course, was touted as a future champion nearly a decade ago, but injuries derailed her rise. Now, she finally gets a shot to hoist gold, and a majority believes she’ll do just that come February.
