As Oregon’s victory total climbed throughout what became a perfect regular season in Eugene, so did our curiosity.
What would it take to beat the Ducks? Was there a weakness to exploit? Or were bad bounces and worse luck the only opponents capable of toppling the most complete and consistent team in the nation?
As the weeks passed, the Hotline periodically reached out to college football analysts, insiders and former coaches, granted them anonymity and asked for the keys to beating the Ducks.
We held the material in reserve until the Ducks’ first College Football Playoff game in order to match the answers to the opponent and circumstances.
Some insiders addressed the mental aspect, the need to believe victory was possible.
That’s not an issue with Ohio State, which played the Ducks to a one-point game in Autzen Stadium three months ago and was a few yards and seconds away from attempting the game-winning field goal.
The Buckeyes won’t be intimidated by the assignment or the stage when they face Oregon on Wednesday in the Rose Bowl, with a berth in the CFP semifinals at stake.
So our focus here is on tactics.
We boiled a series of answers and insights into three keys to beating the lone unbeaten team in major college football:
— Chunk yardage
Oregon’s defense is 19th nationally in yards-per-play allowed (4.89) and 12th in points-per-game allowed (17.8). The unit isn’t exactly granite, but it’s elite, especially when opponents must cover long distances.
The Ducks allowed just 16 touchdown drives of 75 yards or more, an average of 1.2 per game.
The expected return of star defensive end Jordan Burch, who missed several games with knee and ankle injuries, including the first Ohio State matchup, will make moving the ball consistently that much more difficult.
But the Ducks are vulnerable to big plays, having allowed 20 plays of at least 30 yards this season. (In contrast, Ohio State has allowed just nine plays of 30 yards or more).
In other words, chunk yardage is essential for the Buckeyes.
In the first meeting, Ohio State produced three plays of more than 30 yards: two passes by quarterback Will Howard (to tight end Will Kacmarek and receiver Jeremiah Smith) and a 53-yard run by TreVeyon Henderson.
To avoid playing from behind — behind the chains and behind on the scoreboard — the Buckeyes need to double that total.
— Second-and-long scenarios
Of the 67 teams across the Power Four conferences, only Miami, Kansas and LSU have converted third downs more frequently than the Ducks, who are successful on 49 percent of their attempts. (On fourth down, they are even better: 65 percent.)
Sure, it helps to have elite talent at the skill positions and a veteran quarterback, Dillon Gabriel, who turns nothing into something with his arm and his legs. But Oregon is so efficient on first and second down that it rarely faces third-and-desperate situations.
As one former coach noted (via text message): “You must create negative plays on early downs because of the short, rhythm passing game.”
The difference between second-and-six and second-and-11 is immense. Same with the difference between third-and-three and third-and seven.
But negative-yardage plays, which take the form of quarterback sacks and rushing attempts stopped behind the line of scrimmage, are difficult for defenses to muster. On average, the Ducks allow just one sack and three stuffed runs per game.
They don’t often face second- or third-and-long. Their passing-game rhythm is rarely disrupted.
But the Buckeyes have recorded 39 sacks and stopped opposing runners behind the line of scrimmage 45 times. In all, their defense creates an average of 6.7 negative-yardage plays per game.
In the first matchup, the Ducks converted 42 percent of their third downs, a solid number but lower than their season average.
— The ground game commitment
The Ducks have experienced four close calls this season, four games decided by a touchdown or less: The victories over Boise State, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Penn State.
The common thread? All four opponents committed early to the running game and stuck to the running game regardless of circumstance.
Boise State and Ohio State had 33 rushing attempts; Wisconsin had 34 and Penn State 34.
Those 135 attempts produced 786 yards — an average of 196.5 per game — and helped slow down Oregon’s pass rush.
Contrast that success to the nine games Oregon won by more than a touchdown: Opponents averaged just 94.8 rushing yards per game.
The Ducks don’t have an elite run defense; they are No. 55 nationally in yards-per-carry allowed. And in the four one-score games, five opposing tailbacks averaged at least five yards per carry: Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty, Ohio State’s TreVeyon Henderson, Wisconsin’s Tawee Walker and Penn State’s Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton.
But it requires patience and determination.
The Buckeyes generated 141 yards on the ground in the first meeting, but 53 came on Henderson’s run. The other 32 attempts produced 88 yards.
Although it seems counterintuitive, veering away from a strategy that was modestly successful might undermine their prospects for victory.
The trajectory of the Rose Bowl hangs in the balance.
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